Month: August 2026

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MORE: Russian forces conducted a campaign that generated partial BAI effects to facilitate subsequent ground advances in the Pokrovsk and Hulyaipole directions over several months in late 2025. Russian forces used a combination of drones, missiles, and glide bombs in their 2025 BAI campaign to strike targets such as Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs), vehicles, training grounds, and railways and isolate Ukrainian logistics in both Pokrovsk and Hulyaipole. Russian forces appear to again be engaging in a similar BAI campaign in 2026, now targeting Slovyansk and Kramatorsk — the cities that make up the northern tip of Ukraine’s Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast.

The main objective of the ongoing Russian BAI campaign against the Fortress Belt — as with previous BAI campaigns — is to isolate Ukrainian forces defending the Fortress Belt from sustained logistics. Ukrainian and Russian sources have repeatedly commented on the negative effects that Russian strikes are having on Ukrainian logistics, recently noting that nighttime logistics missions in Kramatorsk and Slovyansk are difficult for Ukrainian forces to conduct. Russian forces have been increasingly targeting Ukrainian locomotives that are critical for Ukrainian logistics, for example, and the Russian military command reportedly provided Russian troops with 1,000 Molniya fixed-wing loitering munitions in July 2026 and issued orders to intensify strikes against Ukrainian logistics in and near Kramatorsk.

Russian forces are also starting to strike major bridges in the Fortress Belt area to further disrupt Ukrainian logistics. Geolocated footage posted on August 2 shows the aftermath of a recent Russian multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) strike that heavily damaged the Cherivkovsky Bridge over the Kazennyi Torets River in eastern Slovyansk. The bridge connects Slovyansk to the H-20 highway and leads to Kramatorsk. Russian milbloggers noted that the bridge served as an important Ukrainian logistics route between Slovyansk and Kramatorsk and claimed that it was one of three bridges in Slovyansk capable of handling heavy vehicles.

The ongoing Russian BAI campaign aims to shape the battlefield ahead of planned Russian offensive operations against Slovyansk and Kramatorsk in the future, although Russian forces remain unlikely to advance quickly to or through these cities in the near term. Russian forces have been infiltrating Kostyantynivka in recent months but have not seized the city, despite Russian claims otherwise. The situation in and near the city is deteriorating, however, and fighting will likely continue in Kostyantynivka for several weeks as Russian forces try to consolidate the positions they have gained through infiltrations. Russian infiltrators are already starting to move north of the city toward Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka. Russian forces are also attempting to infiltrate and seize Lyman (northeast of Slovyansk), but ISW has not observed evidence that Russian forces have entered the town. Russian forces nonetheless are likely preparing now for intended future offensive operations against Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. Russia’s 2025 BAI campaigns notably took months to set conditions for subsequent advances in the Pokrovsk and Hulyaipole directions.Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar)Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 3, 2026: Russian forces are replicating aspects of their Summer-Fall 2025 battlefield air interdiction (BAI) campaign that set conditions for late 2025 advances near Pokrovsk and Hulyaipole to prepare for offensive operations against the Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast.

More Key Takeaways:
The main objective of the ongoing Russian BAI campaign against the Fortress Belt — as with previous BAI campaigns — is to isolate Ukrainian forces defending the Fortress Belt from sustained logistics.

The ongoing Russian BAI campaign aims to shape the battlefield ahead of planned Russian offensive operations against Slovyansk and Kramatorsk in the future, although Russian forces remain unlikely to advance quickly to or through these cities in the near term.

Russian forces appear to be more heavily relying on glide bomb strikes in their 2026 BAI campaign compared to their 2025 campaigns.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced more personnel changes within the Ukrainian government and security services on August 3.

Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances on August 3.

Russia launched 181 drones against Ukraine overnight. Ukrainian forces continued striking Russian military assets on August 3. (1/2)—  https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2084468233021653323