JOSSICA - jossica.comMore Key Takeaways:
The regime is likely simultaneously preparing to try to make fighting more costly for the United States should there be a renewal in hostilities. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) “used the calm created by the [memorandum of understanding (MOU)]” to coordinate attack plans with its partners and proxies in the region.
IRGC Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi and his inner circle would likely accept a deal with the United States if the United States surrendered to the regime’s demands. Vahidi’s actions suggest that Vahidi and his faction are unlikely to accept a deal that falls short, even if failing to reach an agreement would risk renewed conflict.
Vahidi’s faction may be willing to accept some economic costs and potential unrest if doing so enables them to achieve their core objectives. Some Iranian officials and media have expressed concerns in recent weeks about Iran’s worsening economic conditions and the potential for domestic unrest. It is unclear whether the risk of internal unrest would be sufficient to drive Vahidi to make concessions to receive economic relief, however. Vahidi may prefer to take other actions, such as securitizing society and seeking alternative export routes, to mitigate the risks of domestic unrest and economic collapse. (1/2)— https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2089517545971646781
UKMTO has received a report of an incident in the Strait of Hormuz.
The Company Security Officer has reported that the vessel was struck by an unknown projectile while conducting an outbound transit of the Strait of Hormuz. The impact caused damage to the engine room and resulted in a crew casualty. The remaining crew are currently being assisted by the Omani Coast Guard.
At present, no environmental impact has been reported.
Authorities are investigating.
Vessels are advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity to UKMTO.”