Day: August 1, 2026

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MORE: ISW has observed evidence to assess that Russian forces have advanced in 37.85 square kilometers of territory in Ukraine (smaller than the area of Manhattan) in July 2026 for an average of 1.22 square kilometers per day. Russia’s monthly rate of advance has not changed significantly since February 2026, prior to the start of its Spring-Summer 2026 offensive, which began in mid-March 2026.

Russian forces have infiltrated into more territory in July 2026 than in recent months, advancing or infiltrating into about 121.56 square kilometers of territory in all. Even the Russian rate of advance and infiltration in July 2026 is a fraction of Russia’s rate of advance in July 2025, when Russian forces seized 455.74 square kilometers. Russian forces leaned into conducting additional infiltration missions into Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast in July 2026, but Russia’s increased infiltrations have not resulted in the seizure of Kostyantynivka or the achievement of any operationally significant objectives. The Russian monthly rate of advance in 2026 has been much lower than Russia’s rate of advance during the same period in 2025, even when including infiltrations.

Continued Ukrainian counterattacks, Ukraine’s intermediate-range strike campaign, and Ukrainian drone dominance continue to constrain Russia’s rate of advance and ability to field mechanized vehicles. Russian forces have conducted a few mechanized assaults in isolated areas of the theater in July 2026, but these assaults did not result in meaningful gains. The Kremlin has been optimizing the Russian military for positional warfare rather than maneuver warfare for several years, but Ukrainian adaptations are significantly slowing Russian advances in 2026 compared with previous years. There is no indication that Russian forces will be able to accelerate their advances dramatically or restore maneuver to the battlefield at this time.Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar)NEW: The Russian rate of advance in Ukraine remains low two and a half months into the Russian Spring-Summer 2026 offensive, which has failed to make any operationally significant gains. (1/2)

Other Key Takeaways:

Russian forces reportedly suffered the highest casualty rate of 2026 thus far in July, paying an increasingly high price for no significant increase in the rate of advance — despite the Kremlin’s cognitive warfare effort to deny this fact.

The Kremlin is desperately attempting to disguise its slow rate of advance in Ukraine through exaggerated claims of advance, but even Moscow’s claimed rate of advance is only about footpace.

Russian forces continued to exploit Ukraine’s shortage of Patriot interceptor missiles by launching another large ballistic missile and drone strike series against Ukraine overnight on July 31 to August 1, primarily targeting Kyiv Oblast.

Russian forces launched a record number of missiles against Ukraine in July 2026 — notably firing more missiles than it is producing per month and increasingly leveraging its S-400 and Zirkon missiles to compensate for shortfalls in ballistic missile stockpiles.

Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil and gasoline infrastructure in Russia on July 31 and August 1.

Russian forces are reportedly increasing the intensity of drone and glide bomb strikes on Ukrainian fuel and energy infrastructure, including gas stations.

Russian forces are increasingly targeting Ukrainian civilian logistical centers and warehouses.
Neither Ukrainian nor Russian forces made confirmed advances on August 1.—  https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2083728392105419212

Russia’s Saratov Oil Refinery is ablaze this morning after a successful Ukrainian attack drone raid.
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