ISW has observed evidence to assess that Ukrainian forces, on the other hand, have liberated at least 972.56 square kilometers and 60 settlements in 2026. The Russian MoD’s September 19 claims are part of a longstanding Kremlin effort to use aggrandized claims of battlefield advances to convince Ukraine and its partners that Ukrainian defenses will collapse and that Ukraine should surrender in the face of an allegedly inevitable Russian victory.
Exaggerated Russian claims likely also result from the culture of pervasive lying within the Russian military. Ukrainian forces have, in fact, successfully contested both the strategic and the operational initiative since late 2025, having held Russian forces to near-zero gains since March 2026 and having conducted successful counterattacks that have liberated significant amounts of territory in the Kupyansk, Oleksandrivka, and Lyman directions.Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar)NEW: The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to greatly exaggerate the extent of Russian advances across the frontline to construct a false narrative of Russian battlefield progress for domestic and international audiences. The unusual MoD statement comes in the midst of Russian State Duma elections and shortly before the convening of the United Nations General Assembly in New York.
Other Key Takeaways:
The Russian MoD also tried to deny Ukrainian successes in the Lyman direction by presenting an inaccurate picture of the battlefield that denies the ample evidence provided by Russian milbloggers, Ukrainian sources, and geolocated footage.
The Russian MoD’s claims likely aim to shape Russian voters’ perceptions of the war during the ongoing State Duma elections as well as the perceptions of foreign governments that support Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces extensively targeted Russian drone operators as part of their battlefield-shaping effort that enabled Ukrainian drone overmatch prior to Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi in the Lyman direction.
The US Department of State approved on September 18 the sale of air defense equipment worth $2.68 billion to Ukraine.
US President Donald Trump signed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act on September 18.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the eastern Fortress Belt and Oleksandrivka directions, while Russian forces recently advanced in the southern Fortress Belt direction.
Russia launched two Zirkon anti-ship missiles and 174 drones and loitering munitions at Ukraine overnight.— https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2101500482749407511