Month: May 2026

𝗥𝘂𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗮’𝘀 𝗪𝗮𝗿 𝗘𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝗕𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴

Russia’s federal budget deficit hit 5.9 trillion rubles ($82.6 billion) in the first four months of 2026, the largest since the full-scale invasion began. Nearly 40% of the federal budget is already allocated to defense and security. and that is still not enough.

Russia’s Finance Ministry is asking the government to freeze 2.9 trillion rubles ($40.6 billion) in civilian spending this year to cover the gap, a figure that could reach 7.1 trillion rubles ($99.4 billion) by 2028.

The Ministry’s own internal estimates put the negative scenario at 4 trillion rubles ($56 billion) over budget annually, with similar overruns projected through the end of the decade.

Russia’s National Wealth Fund is also approaching depletion.

Oil and gas revenues are down nearly 19% year-on-year due to both sanctions and Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure.

The Central Bank’s 21% interest rate has driven over 21 trillion rubles ($294 billion) into deposits, starving the civilian economy.

External financial markets are closed to Moscow cutting off traditional strategies to improve the numbers.

Putin must now choose between maintaining living standards, sustaining military expenditures, and preserving Russia’s long-term economic health.

His Soviet predecessors faced similar choices in the 1980’s and we all know how that ended.

#OSINT  #Ukraine  #Analysis

— OSINT Intuit™ (@UKikaski) May 30, 2026

The Lukoil Yaroslavl-3 (Ярославль-3) oil pumping station (LPDS), Part of Transneft-Baltika (Транснефть – Балтика) or Yaroslavl Regional Oil Pipeline Administration, is burning well for a second day.

Location: 57.373591, 39.628852

#OSINT  #Ukraine  #BloodOil
Video
 

— OSINT Intuit™ (@UKikaski) May 30, 2026

Ukrainian FP-2 LR-FPV strikes overnight May 29–30 hit two Tu-142 anti-submarine aircraft at Taganrog-Yuzhny military airfield and an Iskander-K TEL on the northern outskirts of Taganrog.

Note in the video: The Iskander TEL had just launched a cruise missile. You can clearly see the vertical ejection by solid rocket motor, followed by the sharp 90° pitch-over maneuver to horizontal flight before the turbojet sustainer engages and the missile descends to low-level cruise altitude.

The Bastion-P (K-300P) coastal defense system with P-800 Oniks (Yakhont) missiles, often used by Russia for strikes on Ukrainian ground targets, also performs a very similar visible launch sequence. However, there were no reports of Bastion launches or activity during this operation.

#OSINT  #Ukraine
Video
 

— OSINT Intuit™ (@UKikaski) May 30, 2026

Ukrainian FP-2 LR-FPV variant strikes overnight May 29-30 striking a Russian shadow fleet tanker and two oil depots in Taganrog and Feodosia.

#OSINT  #Ukraine
Video
 

— OSINT Intuit™ (@UKikaski) May 30, 2026