Day: October 20, 2023

As much of the world’s attention shifted to the Middle East this week, Russian president Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky staked out contrasting positions on the war between Israel and Hamas.

The Russian president has reportedly not called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu since the weekend, and did not release a message of support or condolences following the attacks on Saturday.

Instead, Putin took the opportunity to blame U.S. policy for the latest outbreak of violence. “I think that many people will agree with me that this is a vivid example of the failure of United States policy in the Middle East,” Putin said. “[Washington] tried to monopolize regulating [the conflict], but was unfortunately unconcerned with finding compromises acceptable for both sides. It put forward ideas on how it should be done and pressured both sides. Each time, however, without taking into account the fundamental interests of the Palestinian people,” he added, according to the Moscow Times.

On Thursday, Russia’s foreign ministry called on Israel to agree to a ceasefire and allow goods to come into Gaza. “The unacceptability of the indiscriminate bombardment leading to numerous civilian casualties was emphasized,” a Russian statement said.

Putin and Netanyahu have reportedly shared a friendly relationship in the past, but it has deteriorated over the course of Russia’s war in Ukraine. Israel has refused to join the Western sanctions regime, abstained from providing weapons to Kyiv, and largely maintained neutrality on the war, but tensions between Moscow and Tel Aviv have grown due to other factors.

For one, the war in Ukraine has brought Russia closer with Iran, who some have been quick to blame for the attacks in Israel over the weekend.

Second, as Moscow’s former chief rabbi explained to reporter Pjotr Sauer, many Jewish people are uncomfortable with Putin’s framing of the war as a fight against a “neo-Nazi” government.

Sauer elaborates in the Guardian: “Last summer, these tensions first spilled over into the public, when Russian officials accused Israel of supporting the ‘neo-Nazi regime’ in Kyiv. The spat was ignited after Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, recycled an antisemitic conspiracy theory claiming that Adolf Hitler ‘had Jewish blood’ – comments that Israel described as ‘unforgivable and outrageous.’”

Zelensky, meanwhile, has repeatedly affirmed his country’s support for Israel, comparing Hamas’s attacks over the weekend to Russia’s conduct during the war. “The only difference is that there is a terrorist organization that attacked Israel, and here is a terrorist state that attacked Ukraine,” Zelensky said during a speech to NATO on Monday. He later told a French television station that he was confident that Moscow was supporting Hamas “in one way or another.”

During his visit to Brussels, the Ukrainian president also acknowledged that “everybody’s afraid” that Western attention and support for Kyiv could diminish as focus shifted toward the Middle East.

Zelensky earlier said Moscow stood to gain from tumult around the world. “We have data very clearly proving that Russia is interested in inciting war in the Middle East. So that a new source of pain and suffering would erode global unity and exacerbate cleavages and controversies, helping Russia in destroying freedom in Europe,” he wrote on X. “We can see Russian propagandists gloating. We can see Moscow’s Iranian friends openly extending a helping hand to those who attacked Israel.”

In Responsible Statecraft this week, Mark Katz, professor of government and politics at the George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government, explored these dynamics and analyzed why, contrary to some opinions, a larger war in the Middle East could run counter to Moscow interests.

“While many in the West seem to think that Russia somehow benefits whenever conflict erupts in the Middle East, this might be an occasion when it does not. Moscow may be calling for a ceasefire, then, because it sees this as the best way to protect its interests,” he concluded. “The problem for Moscow, however, is that it is not in a strong position to either persuade or coerce Israel or Hamas to agree to one. Perhaps this is why Foreign Minister Lavrov indicated that President Putin would not be making calls to any other leaders about this.”

In other diplomatic news related to the war in Ukraine:

—A recent poll conducted by Gallup found that “After 18 months of grinding conflict, Ukrainians remain deeply committed to winning the war with Russia — although slightly less so than they were in the early months of the war.” The number of Ukrainians who would want to keep fighting until “it wins the war” dropped to 60% from 70% in September 2022. The number of respondents who wanted to seek a negotiated settlement “as soon as possible” increased slightly during the same time period, from 26% to 31%.

The poll also found that “In the South (45%) and East (52%) regions closest to the front line, support for continuing the fight is still lower than the rest of the country. As a result, the proportion who favor a negotiated end to the war as quickly as possible is also highest in the South (41%) and East (39%).” Just over 70% of residents of the north of Ukraine, which includes Kyiv, and the West were in favor of continuing to fight.

—Another poll — from the Eurasia Group Foundation — found that a majority of Americans (58%) think the United States should push for a negotiated settlement in the war in Ukraine. As Daniel Larison notes in RS today, “Support for diplomatic solutions [in Ukraine and elsewhere] has majority backing of Americans from across the political spectrum, so it is remarkable how little support for those same solutions can be found among our elected representatives and policymakers in Washington.”

The poll also found that a plurality of respondents named “avoiding a direct war between the U.S. and nuclear-armed Russia” as the top goal for the future of U.S. support of the war effort. More respondents believed that the “U.S. responded well to Russia’s war in Ukraine than did not,” though there was a strong partisan divide on that question.

— A New Yorker profile of national security adviser Jake Sullivan examines the administration’s approach to the war in Ukraine, explores some of the internal debates over which weapons to send to Kyiv, and looks into how Sullivan thinks about the question of diplomacy. The piece reports that the White House was “fully briefed” on the Track Two talks that took place between former and prominent Russians in the spring.

“There is little doubt that the Biden Administration has actively considered ways to get Russia to the negotiating table,” writes Susan Glasser. “Privately, Sullivan has had extensive discussions about what a peace deal might look like. ‘My conversations with him all the way through have been about what can you do to eventually bring this war to an end,’ an informal adviser of Sullivan’s told me. (…) ‘they want to find a way to eventually get to a freeze, to eventually get to a negotiated settlement. But it has to be something that keeps nato together. It has to be something that doesn’t isolate the Ukrainians or have them go off and undermine everything that’s been done. That’s a hard square to circle.’”

—National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that funding for Ukraine would not be endless. “On the Ukraine funding, we’re coming near to the end of the rope. Today we announced $200 million, and we’ll keep that aid going as long we can, but it’s not going to be indefinite,” he said. The White House is reportedly planning to try to get its languishing aid request for Ukraine through Congress by combining it with funding for Israel, Taiwan, and border security, though some Congressional Republicans have balked at the proposal.

U.S. State Department news:

During a press briefing on Tuesday focused almost exclusively on the war in Gaza, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said that he didn’t have any evidence suggesting that Russia was involved in Hamas’s attacks.

The number of deaths at the Al-Ahli Arab hospital caused by the misfired Palestinian Islamic Jihad missile on Wednesday night may have been grossly misrepresented by local sources, according to Thursday reports from a number of independent intelligence sources as well as European news sources.

Local Hamas-run Gazan sources allege that 471 people were killed at the hospital; foreign independent intelligence sources claimed instead that the number was closer to 10-50. 

France’s Le Monde noted in a Thursday analysis that at least 15 lifeless bodies were visible in verified video footage of the area moments after the explosion. Four of those were bodies of infants. 

Open-source intelligence source OSINTtechnical on X (formerly Twitter) analyzed the incident using satellite imagery obtained via SkyWatch satellite. It noted that no clear difference could be discerned in the area around the hospital complex. Specifically, OSINT examined the graveyard from which the projectile was reportedly launched according to an intercepted phone call released by the IDF.

Full imagery, 10/18 on the left, 10/17 (pre-explosion) on the right.The graveyard mentioned in the call released by the IDF can be seen to the west of the hospital complex. No clear differences can be discerned between today and yesterday. pic.twitter.com/smBjoKB1t9

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) October 19, 2023

In the IDF recording, two Hamas agents discovered that one of their rockets had fallen at the hospital rather than in Israel proper. 

A member of the media walks at the area of Al-Ahli hospital in Gaza City, October 18, 2023 (credit: REUTERS/MOHAMMED AL-MASRI)

OSINT noted that, based on a preliminary analysis of the images, “there isn’t a ‘smoking gun’ here that can be easily pointed to.”

Both OSINT and Nathan Ruser, an analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, also evaluated snapshots of the parking lot outside the hospital from before and after the blast. 

Now that day has broken, and we’re getting better evidence, I’m willing to share some PRELIMINARY thoughts on the al-Ahli hospital explosion. The photos of the scene are, to me, not consistent with an airstrike and are not consistent with claims that 500+ people were killed. pic.twitter.com/dzA3Bx71hr

— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) October 18, 2023

Ruser stated that, in his opinion, “the photos of the scene are not consistent with claims that 500+ people were killed.”

OSINT surmised that the blast had the worst impact on the displaced persons who were gathered for shelter in the hospital’s courtyard. Between 30-50 of those people were likely killed on Wednesday night. “They took the worst of the blast,” OSINT wrote, “many of their bodies were badly burnt.”

Of note, casualty-wise, I can confirm a number, probably 30-50, IDPs (internally displaced persons) were sheltering on the lawn in the courtyard of the Ahli Hospital in the red highlighted area.They took the worst of the blast, many of their bodies were badly burnt. pic.twitter.com/Y5qpGohMyl

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) October 18, 2023

Ruser noted that within about 10 meters of the impact site, cars appeared largely undamaged. 

Indeed, within 10m of the impact site there are cars which appear mostly undamaged. pic.twitter.com/yUs2MQI2VD

— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) October 18, 2023

Finally, according to Reuters citing an unclassified US intelligence report released on Thursday, the death toll is estimated to be “probably at the low end of the 100 to 300 spectrum.” Reuters added that the assessment may evolve. 

Confusion surrounding the Al-Ahli Arab Hospital 

When the explosion occurred at Al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza on Wednesday night, Gazan authorities pinned responsibility on the IDF. Foreign media outlets as well as international government spokespeople condemned Israsl’s purported attack. 

However, it later came out in an IDF report endorsed by US intelligence officials and other independent intelligence sources that the explosion was caused by a misfired Palestinian Islamic Jihad missile fired toward Israel from inside Gaza. 

The primary pieces of evidence supporting this were videos of the missile’s trajectory and the fact that at 6:59 p.m. when the blast occurred, the PIJ had just fired a barrage of rockets toward southern Israel. 

Hamas terrorists who carried out a surprise attack on October 7 were found to be under the influence of Captagon, a synthetic amphetamine-type stimulant that has been clandestinely produced in southern Europe and trafficked through Turkey to the consumer markets on the Arabian Peninsula, as reported by Nir Dvori of Channel 12.

The pills were recovered from the pockets of many terrorists who lost their lives on Israeli soil.

This stimulant drug, also known as the “cocaine for the poor,” allowed the terrorists to commit heinous acts with a sense of calmness and indifference. Simultaneously, it kept them highly alert for extended periods and suppressed their appetite.

Captagon gained notoriety in 2015 when it was discovered to be used by ISIS fighters to suppress fear prior to carrying out terrorist operations. As the influence of terrorist organizations like ISIS diminished, Lebanon and Syria took the reins and began producing and distributing the drug on a large scale.

Gaza, in particular, became a popular market for the drug, especially among addicted young individuals.

Captagon belongs to the amphetamine family and was initially developed to address attention disorders, narcolepsy, and depression. Despite its highly addictive nature and potential for inducing psychotic reactions, it continues to enjoy popularity in the Middle East due to its affordability and ease of manufacturing. In poorer countries, the drug can be purchased for a dollar or two, while in wealthier nations, it may cost up to 20 dollars per pill. 

Its primary effects include arousing feelings of euphoria, reducing the need for sleep, suppressing appetite, and providing sustained energy. 

According to medical professionals in Lebanon and Syria, Captagon is not only prevalent among fighters but is also frequently used by desperate civilians residing in conflict zones.

(credit: REUTERS)

Once a source of revenue for ISIS members through drug smuggling, Captagon has now become a major source of income for Syria and is actively supported by Hezbollah.

Around two years ago, an investigation conducted by The New York Times revealed that individuals associated with Syrian dictator Bashar Assad, including family members, had established a thriving industry for the production of Captagon.

This industry, which involves the participation of Hezbollah, is overseen by Assad’s brother and serves as a prosperous enterprise amidst the ruins of the ongoing civil war that has plagued Syria for over a decade.

The profits generated from the drug trade in Syria exceed those gained from legitimate exports.

Reliable estimates suggest that Captagon’s exports from Syria alone reached a minimum of $3.5 billion in 2020 – a figure five times greater than the combined value of Syria’s legal export industries, estimated at just over $700 million.

Experts offering their assessments believe that these projections are speculative and that the actual market value is likely much higher. For example, in Saudi Arabia, it is estimated that consumption of Captagon surpasses 600 million pills annually, generating a market value of at least $9 billion to $12 billion dollars every year.

The drug’s reach extends beyond Saudi Arabia, with significant seizures of Captagon reported in Italy, Greece, Malaysia, and Egypt. In Jordan, it is readily available at low prices, making it increasingly popular among underprivileged youth, including those of school age. Without a doubt, the prevalence of Captagon continues to rise each year.

In December 2021, Kuwaiti authorities seized nine million Captagon pills hidden in a shipment of oranges. Just a week prior, Dubai authorities intercepted the smuggling of 1.5 tons of Captagon pills, worth approximately $380 million, concealed within a cargo of lemons.

Last year alone, more than 250 million Captagon pills were thwarted from being smuggled, representing an 18-fold increase compared to four years ago. These figures only account for the shipments that were seized, leaving room to speculate that the actual smuggling quantities are much higher. Reports have previously suggested that the drug has also made its way onto the streets of Israel, where it is sold for around NIS 50 per pill.

Leaders respond differently in moments of crisis. Some buckle, cringe or stay aloof and unconcerned, others abandon ship and run away while some rise up to the challenge and forge a new nation or organization from the experience.

The ongoing wars in Europe and the Middle East offer us a chance to examine the role of effective leadership in a moment of national challenge. On February 24, 2022, the Russian military invaded Ukraine, setting off the biggest attack on a European country since the Second World War. Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian civilians and troops have been killed and injured, about eight million Ukrainians have been internally displaced and 8.2 million have fled the country. The losses on both sides are mounting and there are no indications of when the fight would end. However, the leadership style of the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, in this moment of immense national disaster has captured the world’s imagination. He embodies valour and resilience, two important leadership traits required in times of turmoil.

Zelensky, 45, was a TV actor who used to play president of his country in drama skits before he was elected in 2019. When the Russian tanks rolled into his country last year, many were not sure of how he would respond. Eighteen months on, Zelensky has acquitted himself as a leader made for the moment, leading his people to confront a superpower which is waging the biggest land assault in recent history.

Zelensky has inspired thousands of his compatriots to fight for their motherland, motivated many from foreign lands into his army and forged an international campaign to bolster military and financial support. The world has come to admire Zelensky – who has since replaced his business suits with fatigue – hoping from plane to plane, visiting foreign capitals, meeting heads of states, addressing parliaments and global audiences and securing the backing of NATO, EU, G7, G20 and other organizations and countries. His speeches have succeeded in sensitizing the world to the dangers of Vladimir Putin seizing his country.

He makes nightly radio address to his citizens to apprise them of developments and offer words of comfort and succor, visits troops at the frontlines and the wounded soldiers in the hospitals. Additionally, he makes regular visits to homes of people who have lost loved ones to comfort and condole. Last December, Time magazine named him ‘’Person of the Year’’ for the courage he’s shown in leading his country. That edition is one of my favourite copies in a long time.

‘’Zelensky’s success as a wartime leader has relied on the fact that courage is contagious. It spreads through Ukraine’s political leadership in the first days of the invasion, as everyone realized the President has stuck around’’, the magazine’s Simon Shuster wrote in the cover article.

In the early hours of Saturday, October 7, 2023, hundreds of Hamas terrorists breached Israel’s hi-tech intelligence systems and entered the country from the Gaza Strip to launch the most brazen and audacious attacks against the only Jewish nation. Coming exactly 50 years after the Yom Kippur war of October 1973, the assaults were meant to subdue and break Israel. Over 1,300 Israelis lost their lives and about 150 persons of different nationalities were taken hostage. Before the attacks, Israel was in deep political turmoil over Benjamin Netanyahu’s policy on judicial reforms in which he sought to curb the powers of the Supreme Court which many viewed as a power grab and his attempt to intimidate the justices and thwart his ongoing corruption trial.

The protests against the policy were widespread and even army personnel and reservists had threatened to join. The prime minister became the most despised politician in the country. Some observers are quick to blame the political turmoil in Israel for the monumental intelligence failure that enabled the terrorists to train for months across the wall in Gaza and enter Israel undetected. But it was a different Netanyahu that we’ve seen after the attacks.

He has responded swiftly and impressively to the crisis by bringing the country together and rallying the citizens for what would definitely be a long and difficult war against the terrorists. The Prime Minister soon set up a government of emergency Israeli unity and war cabinet, bringing in opposition politicians into the government. A polarized and divided nation soon came together, ready to go to war to achieve a common goal. By the weekend, the PM was visiting troops at the frontline, encouraging them to achieve victory and protect their country.

Providing effective leadership in times severe challenges is one of the most important functions of a leader which is central to the success of a country or an organization. Whether it is famine, war or outbreak of diseases, national leaders must possess the resilience, rigour, adaptability with which to rise to the occasion and steer the country through uncertainty.

Business leaders also require the same set of competencies to face whatever crisis that may arise. Indeed, the saying that real leaders are forged in crisis signifies how crucial effective leadership is in times of serve challenges. Effective crisis management entails the ability to make quick decision while inspiring trust and confidence in the team. History is full of leaders who have excelled or failed in difficult times. In the United States, President George Bush and Rudy Giuliani are renowned for their inspiring leaderships after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. UK Prime Minister Winston Churchill and US President Franklin Roosevelt also led impressively well during the Second World War to defeat the Nazis.

A few days after the Hamas attacks, President Joe Biden spoke to families of Americans who were taken hostage. The President explained that it was important that he showed compassion and empathy. In all the 13 years since 2010 that this country has suffered brutal attacks under Boko Haram, no Nigerian President had ever bothered to meet with, or speak to families of victims. President Muhammadu Buhari was notoriously so aloof and unconcerned about the slaughter of Nigerians by Fulani militias in some parts of the country, especially in the North Central, that I suspect that he had severe Empathy Deficit Disorder (EDD).

While Dr. Goodluck Jonathan was commended for touring flooded states in 2012 to sympathize and comfort displaced people, and celebrated for rising promptly to defend the country against Ebola outbreak in 2014, his handling of the abduction of the Chibok girls that same year left a lot to be desired. It was one of the reasons he lost the 2015 election.

President Buhari provided fantastic leadership during the COVID-19 pandemic, ensuring that the country prepared adequately for the disease, thus saving thousands of lives, his responses to the many militant and militia attacks in parts of the country, especially Benue, Plateau and North Western States were, at best, sloppy. So many died under his watch, yet he did little or nothing to stop the carnage, and he showed little or no concern to families of the victims.

Businesses could also face serious crisis due to cybercrimes, loss of a key staff, fire, a major fraud and regulatory infractions, etc. It is important for businesses to have a well-prepared standard manual for managing crisis. This manual typically outlines important steps to follow in case of an emergency or problems. In 2002, a bank I worked for as Head of Corporate Communication fell into a major crisis when the CBN suspended it, and a few others, from the foreign exchange market for some months for flouting some regulatory guidelines.

It was a major crisis in the industry and the panic was noticeable. The executive management handled the crisis superbly and from it we learned many lessons in crisis management. Soon after, we developed a manual on crisis management for the institution. Effective communication is an important ingredient in managing crisis in an organization or a country.

The jury is still out on how well the incumbent president is leading the country in this very moment of monumental economic and security difficulties. The first step is for President Tinubu to build a broad national consensus on how best to face this moment.

Views expressed by contributors are strictly personal and not of TheCable.