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Day: October 1, 2023
The de-facto Armenian authorities of Nagorno-Karabakh announced on September 28 the dismantling of all institutions by January, marking the end of the enclave, which dates back to the beginning of the Soviet period.
The Armenian government of the region, which it calls Artsakh, has dissolved, its army surrendered, and one of its former leaders was arrested, all in the space of a few days. It is an ignominious end to a 35-year-old statelet.
This also marks an end to a tragic story of one of the most brutal territorial and ethnic conflicts in what was once the Soviet Union, and ushers in an interesting precedent where a post-Soviet country successfully reconquered its lost territories.
Azerbaijan’s victory changes the ethnic composition on the ground. At the time of publication, more than 50% of Karabakh’s Armenian population of 120,000 had fled the region. Many more are expected to go. This is not population expulsion at the point of a bayonet, but that may be because Azerbaijan doesn’t need to. The months-long Azeri siege of the Armenian community, denying them food and medicine, made clear that its intentions were not friendly.
How did all this come about?
Nagorno-Karabakh is a mountainous area in the South Caucasus with a historically mixed population. Throughout the 20th century, the region evolved into a mostly Armenian-populated area. Armenians and Azeris clashed after the end of the Romanov Empire, but with the Soviets, relative peace was established, though the roots of future conflict were seeded by placing the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast within Azerbaijan, with no land connection to Armenia.
Over time, tensions grew. The process accelerated in the late 1980s, as the Soviet Union started to disintegrate. The regional parliament of Nagorno-Karabakh voted to become part of Armenia, although the decision was not recognized by the central Soviet authorities or Azerbaijan.
With Soviet imperial power fading, hostilities erupted in 1988 and lasted six years. Armenia was the winner, and as a result, Nagorno-Karabakh, with its surrounding territories, became a de facto independent republic, heavily backed by Armenia, but internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan.
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For decades, there were multiple efforts to negotiate. One such was mediated by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group (co-chaired by Russia, the United States, and France), but there was no significant progress.
As talks floundered, there were intermittent political and military escalations. Clashes occurred along the line of contact and claimed numerous lives on both sides. In 2016, for example, Azerbaijan managed to occupy hundreds of hectares of land in a short campaign often seen as a precursor to the Second War of 2020.
In late September of that year, Azerbaijan launched a short and successful campaign to reclaim the area, using foreign-supplied technology, including drones. More than 5,000 troops on both sides were killed in just six weeks of hostilities. The Kremlin — which rejected Armenian pleas for military aid — brokered a temporary ceasefire on November 10, which handed most of the seven regions around Karabakh itself and parts of the separatist region, including the city of Shusha, to Azerbaijan. In a major Russian victory, a key element of the deal was the dispatch of a 2,000-strong peacekeeping force to the truncated region.
While the 2020 ceasefire agreement brought an end to active hostilities, the fundamental disagreements between Armenia and Azerbaijan regarding the region’s status remained. The international community continued to monitor the situation, hoping for a comprehensive and lasting resolution. As in the past, these efforts made barely any difference.
And yet things had changed in the three decades since the first ceasefire. Azerbaijan had built a war-winning military; it had reasonable relations with Armenia’s long-standing friends, and it had become a major energy supplier to the European Union (EU) after the Kremlin’s attempt to annex large parts of Ukraine. The Azeri president, Ilham Aliyev, may have felt there was no better time to strike.
The result of all this is far from clear, however. There are multiple questions about what the new power balance will mean for the region, and especially Iran. The latter has enjoyed close ties to Armenia and was uneasy that the 2020 war irreversibly tilted the balance toward Azerbaijan. This caused a re-think in Tehran, which concluded it should use a mixture of military deterrence (holding military exercises) and diplomatic pressure against Azerbaijan.
Russia, another of the big three powers bordering the South Caucasus (along with Iran and Turkey), has also markedly changed its approach. Its tolerance of Azerbaijan’s use of force may partly be linked to its need to access Iran as a part of the International North-South Transport Corridor. The route runs through Azerbaijan. It may also be because its forces in the region have been stripped to the bone to reinforce its war of aggression in Ukraine.
But there is a personal element too. Putin’s animus toward Armenia’s prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, who came to power after the revolution in 2018, is deep-seated. There are many reasons for this, but Pashinyan’s attacks on Russia’s refusal to assist and his questioning of the Kremlin-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), along with exercises with US forces, have infuriated Russia. So too, has the decision to join the International Criminal Court (ICC), which has a warrant out on Putin.
Yet it is doubtful that Russia will simply allow Azerbaijan to regain its territories in the hope of having a more Russia-leaning leadership. Perhaps there is a wider calculus at play: Moscow may be extracting concessions from Baku which might include membership of CSTO or its Eurasian Economic Union (EEU).
The real problem now — apart from the absolute fury of many Armenians — is that there’s another issue between the two rival states with almost the same explosive potential.
The presidents of Turkey and Azerbaijan met in the area of Nakhchivan on September 26. This is part of Azerbaijan physically separated from the motherland by Armenian territory. It was clear from the words used by Aliyev when speaking with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan that he is now seeking a “peace corridor” between the two parts of Azerbaijan. This has previously been referred to by Iran as a casus belli.
The losers of the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute are now apparent. Clearly, Armenia has been defeated; it is in no position to challenge Azerbaijan’s gains and is deeply divided internally and militarily inferior. Whatever Russia says, it has been exposed as an unreliable ally and as a spectator rather than the key power in the region. And the US and EU have been revealed as the authors of strong statements, but not much else.
The winners are Azerbaijan and its closest ally, Turkey. What they decide will determine whether there is peace or more war in the South Caucasus.
Emil Avdaliani is a professor at European University and the Director of Middle East Studies at the Georgian think-tank, Geocase.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the position or views of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis.
Europe’s Edge
CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America.
Ankara [Turkey], October 1 (ANI): The Turkish Parliament reconvened for a new term hours after a suicide bomber detonated explosives outside the ministry building in Ankara, leaving two policemen injured, Al Jazeera reported. Hours after the attack on the interior ministry, the Turkish parliament convened after a nearly three-month break. The session was opened by […]
Wojciech Grzedzinski/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
- A new US bill to prevent a government shutdown omits further aid for Ukraine.
- Republicans are divided on Ukraine and whether to prolong additional funding.
- Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy told US politicans, “If we don’t get aid, we will lose the war.”
US Congress passed a bill to fund government services temporarily but suspended aid to Ukraine, The Associated Press reported.
Congress members who back Ukraine said they won’t give up on aid to the war-torn nation, but the event highlights the growing isolationist stance within the Republican party, driven by its pro-Trump MAGA wing.
Congress approved the bill on Saturday night, forestalling a government shutdown until at least mid-November. The stopgap spending legislation does not include military relief or humanitarian aid to Ukraine. The omission means $6 billion is being withheld from Ukraine, approximately a third of the funding requested by the White House.
Republicans are divided on Ukraine and whether to prolong additional funding for the Eastern European nation battling against the Russian invasion that began in February 2022.
“Most Senate Republicans remain committed to helping our friends on the front lines, to investing more heavily in American strength that reinforces our allies and deterring our top strategic adversary, China,” said Mitch McConnell, Senate Minority Leader.
But some lawmakers concede that maintaining support for Ukraine assistance in Congress is a growing challenge, per AP.
Zelenskyy: “If we don’t get aid, we will lose the war”
Ukrainian soliders are pictured near Kharkiv, Ukraine.
Marienko Andrew/AP
The move to drop Ukraine aid comes a week after Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Joe Biden and US lawmakers to directly request new weapons systems, including longer-range ATACMS missiles and F-16 fighter jets, per Bloomberg.
“If we don’t get aid, we will lose the war,” Zelenskyy said to senators, according to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.
Almost half of Republicans in the House of Representatives voted earlier this week to omit $300 million from a defense spending bill to purchase weapons and train Ukrainian soldiers, AP reports. The funding was later approved, but Ukraine aid opponents are growing in numbers.
Republican Senator J.D. Vance posted a letter to X (formerly Twitter), opposing further funding to Ukraine. The letter was signed by 28 Republicans from the Senate and House of Representatives.
“At a classified briefing over Ukraine, it became clear that America is being asked to fund an indefinite conflict with unlimited resources. Enough is enough. To these and future requests, my colleagues and I say: NO,” wrote Vance, a Trump loyalist.
President Donald Trump (R) and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin talk as they make their way to take the “family photo” during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders’ summit in the central Vietnamese city of Danang on November 11, 2017.
JORGE SILVA/POOL/AFP via Getty Images
Firebrand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene has also long touted anti-Ukraine rhetoric. Last year the high-profile MAGA cheerleader faced backlash for saying, “You see, Ukraine just kept poking the bear, and poking the bear, which is Russia, and Russia invaded,” per The Financial Times. “There is no win for Ukraine here. Russia is being successful in their invasion,” she added.
In April, the Georgia Rep. said Zelenskyy “wants our sons and daughters to go die in Ukraine.” Last month, she baselessly claimed Ukraine was sex trafficking children and harvesting their organs.
Trump, the MAGA champion and the leading contender for the Republican 2024 presidential nomination, is ambivalent about backing Ukraine, casting himself as a peacemaker who can resolve the conflict in 24 hours, but without providing any detail on how. He has a long record of expressing admiration for President Vladimir Putin’s “genius” leadership qualities.
Yesterday, Joe Biden urged Congress to continue aid provisions to Ukraine, Sky News reports.
“While the Speaker and the overwhelming majority of Congress have been steadfast in their support for Ukraine, there is no new funding in this agreement to continue that support,” Biden said, per Sky News.
Read the original article on Business Insider
With help from Paul McLeary and Connor O’Brien
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The details of the today’s indictment against Sen. BOB MENENDEZ read like a white-collar crime movie: Wads of cash stuffed in a Senate jacket! A new Mercedes-Benz convertible! Literal gold bars! And just as in a thriller, he’s got a nemesis or two likely celebrating his potential downfall.
After all — Menendez is expected to step down from his position as chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, where he’s made enemies of some foreign governments.
“They’ll pop some champagne!” ALPER COŞKUN, a senior fellow in the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Europe Program, predicted to NatSec Daily when asked about Turkey’s response.
Menendez has been a persistent headache for Turkish President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN, who has long sought to buy new F-16s and upgrade his existing fleet. Biden can’t sell the planes without buy-in from the top Republicans and Democrats on the Senate Foreign Relations and House Foreign Affairs committees, and Menendez hasn’t budged, citing concerns that Turkey could use them in a “belligerent way” against NATO allies.
It’s safe to say Erdoğan will be crossing his fingers for a friendlier replacement.
The New Jersey Democrat has denied the charges and called them a “smear campaign.” But according to Senate Caucus rules, if a lawmaker is under indictment for a felony, they can’t chair a committee. Lawmakers can resume their post if charges are dropped or reduced to less than a felony.
Menendez has also been a steadfast supporter of Armenia, something that has rankled Ankara and its close ally Azerbaijan. The SFRC chair was one of the most fervent supporters of U.S. recognition of the Armenian genocide and has devoted considerable legislative attention to the ethnically Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. Just Thursday, Menendez led a bipartisan group of lawmakers in introducing a bill that would strip Azerbaijan of military assistance in light of Azerbaijan’s “ethnic cleansing” in the region.
Closer to home, Menendez has long used his perch to limit U.S. engagement with Cuba’s government and block efforts to lift the decadeslong embargo against the island. As one of the most powerful and hawkish Democrats in Congress, some observers believe that with Menendez sidelined, a new opportunity exists to return to U.S.-Cuba rapprochement.
But it’s unlikely that the Biden administration will rapidly scale up its entreaties with Cuba in Menendez’s absence. Embracing Havana would give credence to Republican claims in an election year that President JOE BIDEN and Democrats are “soft on socialism.” Cuba also has a stronger negotiating hand and its continued closeness with Russia, China and Iran make the prospect of mending fences less simple.
In June, CALLA WALSH, co-chair of the National Network on Cuba, a coalition of left-wing organizations working to end the embargo, and two other activists were arrested in Menendez’s office after demanding to speak with him about ending the embargo.
Asked for comment on the matter, Walsh had a simple answer: “lfg!” she wrote over text (we’ll let you Google what that’s short for).
In a statement, the National Network on Cuba told NatSec Daily that they hope Biden uses the leadership change to make his Cuba policy “pro-diplomacy, pro-engagement … as he promised to during his campaign.”
Other countries Menendez has been tough on, including Iran, China and Russia, probably aren’t likely to miss him too much either.
Read: Bob Menendez is no stranger to corruption scandals. His 50-year political career started with one by our own MATT FRIEDMAN
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ATACMS INCOMING: Biden promised Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY that Washington will soon provide Kyiv with a small number of long-range missiles to help its war with Russia, two U.S. officials told our own JONATHAN LEMIRE, ALEXANDER WARD, PAUL McLEARY and LARA SELIGMAN.
Biden made the pledge to Zelenskyy during the Ukrainian leader’s visit to the White House on Thursday, fulfilling a long-held wish by Kyiv, according to the officials. It’s not clear exactly when the Army Tactical Missile Systems will be delivered to Ukraine, as the White House has yet to acknowledge the decision.
It’s a major win for Kyiv, which has long sought the missiles. ATACMS have a range of 45 to 190 miles, outranging anything the U.S. has delivered to date, and rivaling the handful of long-range missiles sent by France and the United Kingdom. Ukrainians have long argued that they are crucial to striking deep behind entrenched Russian positions along a 600-mile front line.
The news comes as Ukraine racked up a few other big wins recently, seemingly boosting morale among troops pushing back against Russian forces. On Thursday, Ukrainian forces breached the main Russian defensive line in the southeastern part of the country with armored vehicles for the first time, The Wall Street Journal’s JAMES MARSON reported.
That breakthrough shows that “Ukrainians are still able to surprise everybody,” VOLODYMYR OMELYAN, a captain in the Ukraine Armed Forces and the country’s former minister of infrastructure, told NatSec Daily today. “It takes us a lot of bloodshed but morale is high, offensive operations will go on.”
When asked if troops were looking forward to receiving Abrams M1 tanks this week, as Biden announced on Thursday, Omelyan said “absolutely,” adding a fire emoji.
Today, Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine and the U.S. have agreed to launch joint weapons production to start making air defense systems.
In Zelenskyy’s eyes, the trip to Washington this week paid off: “It was a very important visit to Washington, very important results,” he said in the video address.
ZELENSKYY AT THE ARCHIVES: The Ukrainian leader’s presentation to lawmakers in D.C. week was much different than his last trip in December, writes Paul, who attended Zelensnkyy’s speech at the National Archives on Thursday night.
During that earlier trip, the Ukrainian leader addressed a joint session of Congress just days before lawmakers were set to vote on a $45 billion aid package for his country, in which he made an impassioned plea that saw multiple standing ovations by lawmakers, along with a high-profile White House visit.
Nine months later, Congress is nowhere near voting on a new $24 billion aid package and is likely headed for a government shutdown in two weeks. Rejected by Speaker of the House KEVIN McCARTHY, Zelenskyy was unable to address Congress, so he settled for a smaller address in front of lawmakers like Sens. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) and NANCY PELOSI (D-Calif.), flanked by large murals of America’s founding fathers.
It was a more intimate and personal speech than the last, when he thundered about the costs of failing to beat back Russian forces attacking his country.
Zelenskyy instead focused on the human cost of the war. He and his wife, Olena, took turns speaking about the civilians killed and wounded in the fighting, bringing up to the stage two young Ukrainians wounded in the early days of the Russian invasion. The duo then called out about two dozen Americans and Ukrainian-Americans who have raised money and provided medical services for Ukrainians wounded in the fighting.
It was a human moment, and without the impassioned pleas for more Western aid that he has become known for. After about an hour, Zelenskyy and his team headed for the exits and a visit to Canada, while the future of U.S. aid remained stalled on Capitol Hill.
Read: Zelenskyy basks in Canada love-in as cracks emerge in alliance by our own KYLE DUGGAN
DON’T SAY DON: Never underestimate persistence. That’s the lesson we got from our own NAHAL TOOSI as she prodded people at the U.N. General Assembly about someone they clearly didn’t want to talk about: former President DONALD TRUMP.
She writes: “The European official looked terrified as I pointed outside the window at the gleaming black building a block away: Trump World Tower. ‘Wow. He’s right there! He’s literally looming over you!’ I said, genuinely astonished. Moments later, he moved my interview to a different room — one without the view of the Trump skyscraper.”
That scene captured the sentiments of people Nahal ran into this week at UNGA in New York: The possibility of a second Donald Trump presidency hangs over them, and they’re resigned to it the same way they are to encountering the Trump building as they walk across the street to the U.N. headquarters.
It’s a sharp analysis, and full of many more eye-opening tidbits. Stay you, Nahal.
Read: Who’s in charge here?: West Africa coups complicate U.N. diplomacy by our own MONA ZHANG
DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington’s national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink.
Today, we’re featuring BARRY PAVEL, vice president and director of RAND’s national security research division. When he’s not thinking big thoughts, Pavel winds down with “The Final Say,” a purple cocktail featuring Uncle Val’s gin, violet liqueur, luxardo and lime juice.
Many D.C. bars make this drink (and others) brilliantly, Pavel told us, but his favorite place to enjoy The Final Say “is at home with the people I love.”
Cheers, Barry!
IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at [email protected] and [email protected], and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33.
While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @JGedeon1 and @ebazaileimil.
ATTACKING THE CARTELS: It might not be a good idea to strike Mexico with missiles or send troops over the southern border, as several GOP presidential candidates have floated, current and former U.S. military and government officials told Reuters.
Cartel members are heavily armed, meaning such an action could open the door to fighting on U.S. soil, the officials said. It may also close the door to collaborations with Mexico and create violent splinters within cartels, making them harder to contain.
The comments come as proposals to use bombing campaigns or military deployments to thwart drug cartels grow increasingly mainstream within the Republican Party. Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS, former U.N. Ambassador NIKKI HALEY, tech entrepreneur VIVEK RAMASWAMY and Trump have all embraced military action against cartels as part of their policy platforms.
CHIPS FUNDING: The Commerce Department finalized rules today to stop semiconductor manufacturing subsidies from being used by China and other nations with national security concerns, allowing the Biden administration to begin awarding $39 billion in subsidies, Reuters’ DAVID SHEPARDSON reports.
NOT READY TO LEGISLATE AI: The Senate Intelligence Committee’s hearing earlier this week on artificial intelligence yielded at least one thing — ongoing debate over the idea of regulating emerging artificial intelligence technologies, our friends at Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!) report.
Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.), vice chair of the committee, told MC that he doesn’t think the Senate is “ready to pass legislation” around AI, given that the subject is still “rapidly evolving and there’s still not a clear understanding of what national guidelines could look like.”
The committee’s hearing focused on ways to address the national security implications of AI. It was the latest in a series of hearings on the technology that multiple congressional committees in the House and Senate have held in recent weeks, including a House Judiciary Committee hearing this week that featured dire warnings about how China is using AI to steal U.S. intellectual property.
UKRAINE CARVE-OUT: The Pentagon’s Ukraine operations will be safe from a potential government shutdown, and training on American tactics and equipment will continue uninterrupted, Lara reported Thursday night.
If lawmakers fail to reach a spending agreement when government funding lapses Sept. 30, DOD has decided to continue activities supporting Ukraine, such as training of Ukrainian soldiers on American tactics and equipment, as well as shipments of weapons to Kyiv. The news came just hours after Zelenskyy visited Austin at the Pentagon.
HOMELAND SECURITY DEMS WANT IN: The House Homeland Security Committee’s top Democrat, Rep. BENNIE THOMPSON (D-Miss.), is pressing for panel members to be included in talks on a compromise defense policy bill.
NDAA talks are primarily handled by Armed Services Committee leaders, but the House usually appoints members of outside committees to negotiate specific provisions that fall in their jurisdictions. Thompson made the case to Homeland Security Chair MARK GREEN (R-Tenn.) in a letter obtained by our own CONNOR O’BRIEN, arguing DHS issues will be decided in the final bill without the panel’s expertise.
“The committee’s exclusion from this year’s NDAA conference committee represents a bewildering departure from past practice,” Thompson wrote.
A Republican Homeland Security Committee aide, however, said Green sees no issue not being included, adding that the chair supports McCarthy’s drive for a narrowly focused NDAA and noting several other panels that were excluded.
DISNEY PRESSURE BACKFIRES: In an effort to mollify concerns from the House Select Committee investigating China, Disney laid off hundreds of workers in China, according to The Wall Street Journal’s JESSICA TOONKEL and ROBBIE WHELAN.
Ahead of a meeting between Disney CEO BOB IGER and the chair of the House China panel Rep. MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wis.), the company laid off 300 workers who “specialized in technology that allows Disney’s streaming services to offer viewers personalized recommendations” to sidestep questions from the committee over data security, as the team had access to data from some U.S. consumers.
It resulted in a litany of glitches and errors that mounted over the course of days until the company restored some members of the fired team.
Extra, extra: As if today hasn’t been eventful enough, listen to the 911 audio about the F-35 pilot who ejected from his plane last weekend… and landed in someone’s backyard.
A message from Lockheed Martin:
Distributed Teaming: Crewed and uncrewed systems working together for the Next Generation.
Increased survivability, extended reach of networked sensors and informed decision making – that’s how collaborative Distributed Teams work to ensure those we serve stay ahead of ready. Learn more.
HOW INDIA GOT INVOLVED: Earlier this week, Canada accused India of being involved in the killing of a Sikh separatist leader but didn’t reveal how it knew. It turns out Ottawa is watching Indian diplomats closely.
Canadian surveillance of Indian diplomats, along with intelligence provided by an unspecified member of the “Five Eyes” intelligence-sharing bloc — which includes Canada, Britain, Australia, New Zealand and the U.S. — helped Ottawa make the accusation, a Canadian official told The Associated Press’ ROB GILLIES Thursday night.
The development comes as relations between the two countries continue to sour. Today, India stopped issuing new visas to Canadian citizens and called on Canada to reduce its diplomatic staff.
— MICHAEL SCHAFFER, POLITICO: He thinks Russia was behind his shooting. Local cops don’t. Is there a better way to investigate alleged foreign ops in America?
— LUIS MORENO OCAMPO, The Washington Post: Call what is happening in Nagorno-Karabakh by its proper name
— ALEXANDRA CHINCHILLA and SAM ROSENBERG, Foreign Affairs: Why America should send military advisers to Ukraine
— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 8:45 AM: 2023 Republic of Korea-U.S. strategic forum
— The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 10 A.M.: The state of U.S. counterterrorism efforts and diplomacy
— Quincy Institute, 12 p.m.: The Baltic States and Baltic security in a historical context
— The McCain Institute, 9:30 p.m.: Only one way forward: the vitality of a democratic Ukraine
Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who we wish would step down from her post.
We also thank our producer, Andy Goodwin, who would make a great replacement.
CORRECTION: A previous version of this newsletter misspelled Canada’s capital.
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YEREVAN, Armenia — Azerbaijan issued an arrest warrant for former Nagorno-Karabakh separatist leader Arayik Harutyunyan, the country’s prosecutor general said Sunday.
Harutyunyan led the breakaway region, which is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but largely populated by ethnic Armenians, between May 2020 and last month, when the separatist government said it would dissolve itself by the end of the year after a three-decade bid for independence.
Azerbaijani police arrested one of Harutyunyan’s former prime ministers, Ruben Vardanyan, on Wednesday as he tried to cross into Armenia along with tens of thousands of others who have fled following Baku’s 24-hour blitz last week to reclaim control of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Harutyunyan and the enclave’s former military commander, Jalal Harutyunyan, are accused of firing missiles on Azerbaijan’s third-largest city, Ganja, during a 44-day war in late 2020, local media reported. The clash between the Azerbaijani military clash and Nagorno Karabakh forces led to the deployment of Russian peacekeepers in the region.
The arrest warrant announcement by Prosecutor General Kamran Aliyev reflects Azerbaijan’s intention to quickly and forcefully enforce its grip on the region following three decades of conflict with the separatist state.
While Baku has pledged to respect the rights of ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, many have fled due to fear of reprisals or losing the freedom to use their language and to practice their religion and cultural customs.
In a briefing Sunday, Armenia’s presidential press secretary, Nazeli Baghdasaryan, said that 100,483 people had already arrived in Armenia from Nagorno-Karabakh, which had a population of about 120,000 before Azerbaijan’s offensive.
Some people lined up for days to escape the region because the only route to Armenia — a winding mountain road — became jammed with slow-moving vehicles.
Armenian Health Minister Anahit Avanesyan said some people, including older adults, had died while on the road as they were “exhausted due to malnutrition, left without even taking medicine with them, and were on the road for more than 40 hours.”
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan alleged Thursday that the exodus of ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh amounted to “a direct act of an ethnic cleansing and depriving people of their motherland.”
Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry strongly rejected Pashinyan’s accusations, saying the departure of Armenians was “their personal and individual decision and has nothing to do with forced relocation.”
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