Day: October 3, 2023

Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) spent years as the top Democrat on the powerful Foreign Relations Committee in the Senate, wielding tremendous influence over Congress, the White House and government agencies. With Menendez facing the biggest crisis of his career ― federal corruption charges and calls for his resignation from a growing number of his fellow Democrats ― he is almost certain to lose that position for good.

The upshot would be dramatic, involving big changes to the Democratic Party’s approach to international relations and to Washington’s national security establishment.

“The foreign policy implications are extremely significant,” one Democratic congressional aide told HuffPost. Referring to the West Virginia Democratic senator notorious for challenging his own party, the aide added: “You can’t overstate the extent to which Bob Menendez was the Joe Manchin of foreign policy.”

Menendez holds hawkish views on many global questions, notably Middle East matters such as diplomacy with Iran and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as well as Latin American dilemmas like how the U.S. should deal with unfriendly governments in Cuba and Venezuela. Through public advocacy and private pressure, he has pushed for U.S. policy to reflect those opinions ― even when such shifts clash with most Democrats’ preferences and risk conflict or human rights violations.

Though Menendez largely supported Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden on domestic issues, he broke with both of them on foreign policy in high-profile ways.

“For him to be the one who determines the caucus’ foreign policy agenda is pretty bizarre,” said Matt Duss, who served as the foreign policy advisor to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) from 2017 to 2022.

“When you know that the chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee has these very hard-line views, that constrains your concept of the possible ― especially when you have an administration that doesn’t want to spend a whole lot of time arguing about foreign policy,” continued Duss, who is now the executive vice president of the Center for International Policy think tank.

Menendez temporarily stepped down from his role as the committee’s chairman last week due to the criminal charges against him, which allege he took bribes in exchange for official favors that benefited Egypt and New Jersey businessmen. He maintains his innocence and his ultimate fate in the Senate remains unclear.

Nearly all Democratic lawmakers broadly share a vision for the U.S.’s role in the world: being engaged and powerful but not overbearing, championing democratic principles and encouraging other nations to do the same, and bolstering America’s network of alliances and global coalitions to address concerns like climate change. If Menendez is permanently replaced as the committee’s chair, his successor could be more focused on promoting that agenda ― and mend intra-Democratic rifts on international matters.

“He was, under both Obama and Biden, in the way of a ton of Democratic Party priorities,” the Democratic congressional aide said. “No matter who replaces him, the door opens for a much saner policy towards Cuba, Venezuela, Iran and down the line to Taiwan.”

On the coattails of Biden’s 2020 election victory, Democrats captured the Senate for the first time since 2014, and Menendez rose from ranking member of the Foreign Relations Committee to its chairman.

He quickly signaled that he would not help Biden achieve one of the president’s chief foreign policy promises from the campaign trail: reentering the international pact to limit Iran’s nuclear program. When Obama helped craft the deal in 2015, Menendez was one of only four Democratic senators to vote against it.

Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) opposed President Barack Obama’s Iran nuclear deal in 2015.

Three years later, President Donald Trump pulled the U.S. out of the agreement. Iran drastically increased its nuclear capabilities in response. Most Democrats and many national security experts said Biden should prioritize ratcheting down tensions.

Yet administration officials knew Menendez had influence over many of the president’s other priorities, too. They ultimately took a more modest approach to diplomacy with Iran than most observers expected. Today, they are far from resurrecting the Obama-era deal, with Iran’s nuclear development continuing to defy restraints. Menendez was not the sole reason for that choice, but his influence was an important factor, observers said.

“There is a feeling among many in the foreign policy community that … the Biden administration did not initially pursue a reentry to [the Iran deal] because they feared retribution from Chairman Menendez, specifically that he would not move quickly to put their nominees through the confirmation process or retaliate by tying their hands,” said a national security advocate who requested anonymity to speak frankly about a senator who has openly boasted about remembering and seeking revenge against his critics.

“One of the reasons why the administration chose to slow-walk rejoining the deal — which was a disastrous decision in my view — was they wanted Menendez’s cooperation. We now may very well lose the [deal] altogether,” Duss said.

Menendez also opposed another signature Obama policy reversed by Trump: greater U.S. engagement with Cuba.

The son of Cuban immigrants who fled the country, Menendez argues easing American sanctions on the island nation only empowers its authoritarian regime ― and rejects the argument that sanctions largely hurt regular Cubans, not Havana’s leaders.

Menendez’s views on Cuba and his similar take on Venezuela made it trickier for the Biden administration to forge a softer policy than Trump to address migrant flows and reduce U.S. friction with key Latin American governments.

And on Israel-Palestine, an issue on which Democratic voters and lawmakers have shown a striking shift, Menendez has maintained a traditionalist view that largely jibes with conservatives in Israel and the U.S.

“He’s typically the lead Democratic member on legislation that actually works against U.S. interests in moving [Israel and Palestine] towards a two-state solution and countering deepening occupation,” the national security advocate said.

When hard-line Israel advocates rallied against Biden’s pick for the top human rights job at the State Department, Sarah Margon, and Republicans refused to support her, Menendez declined to bring her up for a Foreign Relations Committee vote. Margon withdrew her nomination earlier this year.

The human rights position is now widely expected to remain unfilled for the rest of Biden’s time in office, and many progressives working on national security say the episode sent an alarming signal to their community.

Amid Washington’s highest-profile foreign policy debate, over how far to ramp up U.S.-China competition, Menendez distinguished himself as one of the Democrats most supportive of demonstrating strength to Beijing regardless of the risks. The New Jersey senator pushed a bill to drastically upgrade U.S. links with Taiwan, the self-governing island that China claims as its territory. The Democratic aide recalled hearing from military contacts that they viewed it as dangerous.

Under Menendez, Democrats’ approach to international affairs was also defined ― and sometimes undercut ― by his style of operating, people who worked with the senator and his team say.

“It’s not just that Menendez was hawkish — it’s that he threw his weight around to an extraordinary degree,” a former Senate staffer told HuffPost on condition of anonymity.

The current aide described Menendez’s team as dealing with even an administration of their own party in a way that “is always Jersey, kind of a shakedown: ‘the chairman will be angry if you do this.’”

“Even with people who agree with him on politics or policy, it’s very hard to imagine who would miss him,” the aide continued.

Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) has temporarily taken over as chair of the foreign relations panel.

Bringing stability to the critical committee is the immediate challenge for Cardin, given the scandal over Menendez’s alleged corruption and discontent over his chairmanship.

“The committee’s culture needs to change and that will be hard with legacy staff there,” said a current Senate staffer who would only speak on the basis of anonymity.

The staffer noted that Menendez’s charges “brought into question the committee’s integrity” because they focused on foreign matters, specifically illegally helping the Egyptian government.

Critics of the regime in Cairo like Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.) and former Rep. Tom Malinowski (D) want officials to probe Egypt’s interference in U.S. policymaking and the possibility that Menendez shielded the Egyptian regime for corrupt reasons. Analysts say there are signs the alleged scheme implicated Menendez and the committee in preventing accountability for Saudi agents’ murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018.

Those questions are linked to a key overall question: how far Democrats and the committee will go now in reconsidering Menendez’s record. One aide noted a contrast between Menendez’s years of demanding justice for Khashoggi and his alleged crimes, “However good he may have been, he was running interference for the Egyptians on their part, so that taints it.”

Additionally, Democrats will need to address fears among some core constituencies who appreciated elements of Menendez’s records.

“He’s a staunch defender of foreign aid and a robust and expanding diplomatic corps and arguably one of the best on immigration policy,” the national security advocate told HuffPost. “There are those in the progressive foreign policy community for whom this is a real, real difficult moment particularly because he has amassed such power and sway and has been good on these issues.”

Still, many Democrats and people who work with them largely see a moment of possibility in Menendez’s expected ouster, given the likelihood of fresh leadership that channels the range of views in the party.

U.S. and Iranian officials are inching towards a return to nuclear diplomacy that could be especially vital given the risk of a second Trump term come 2025. “That’s going to be a lot easier without Bob Menendez,” the national security advocate said.

Additionally, a new chair could promote “some better conversation” regarding Biden’s push for an agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel that involves U.S. promises that most Democrats see as unpalatable, Duss said. He hopes the committee will be clear “it’s not a Saudi-Israel normalization deal ― it’s a Saudi-U.S. security pact.”

Cardin will retire in 2025. Eventually, Democrats on the panel will likely be led by Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) or Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), though there could be a bid by a younger alternative like Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.).

Nearly any successor to Menendez would give Democrats more breathing room to be creative around foreign policy ― even a more centrist figure, as the example of Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.) has shown in the House of Representatives. He defeated a progressive challenge to become the leading Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee but has often worked with more liberal colleagues.

“We have a moment where it’d be great to have someone in this position who is more representative of where Democrats are generally,” in terms of supporting diplomacy and opposing military intervention, Duss said. “Whoever it is will be taking the gavel at a time when the progressive wing of the party is growing more powerful and we’ve only started to see that on foreign policy.”

OPINION — CIA Director William Burns’ recent remarks to the Ditchley Foundation highlighted three key challenges to American security; (1) strategic geopolitical competition; (2) transnational threats; and (3) the “revolution in technology which is transforming how we live, work, fight, and compete with possibilities and risks we can’t yet fully grasp.” 

This last point requires emphasis—because never again will ‘technology change’ occur as slowly as it is occurring today.  So how does the Intelligence Community (IC) adapt in the Age of AI?

From World War II until the early-2000s, the IC was revered for driving technology innovation to advance U.S. national security. Working closely with America’s scientific and commercial communities, the Agency launched America’s first spy satellite, CORONA, in 1960, and soon after helped develop lithium batteries to improve the performance of surveillance equipment and prolong satellite operations.

In 2003, the CIA’s venture capital arm, In-Q-Tel, backed a start-up called Keyhole, which focused on geospatial data visualization applications. That same year, In-Q-Tel backed Palantir, the company where I now serve as a senior advisor. Beyond advancing American national security, IC-led innovation also improved Americans’ daily lives. Today, there are more than 7,000 satellites in space; lithium batteries power everything from our cell phones, laptops, and toothbrushes, to increasingly, our vehicles; and Operation Warp Speed distributed about 500 million COVID vaccine doses across 64 jurisdictions in 12 months. 

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The public sector began to lose its collective innovation edge with the advancement of the internet, software and commercial broadband in the early 2000’s. Study after study warned of the IC’s eroding marginal share of scientific and technical knowledge and the risks that posed to U.S. national security.

While the Department of Defense (DoD) still faces challenges, some military leaders have made great strides to become more effective adopters of emerging technology.  Given the gravity of the moment, IC leaders must look to these examples for inspiration and harness existing innovation capabilities.

What did the Pentagon get right?

Starting in the early-2010s, the DoD took major steps to ensure the U.S. military was both a leading consumer and partner in American innovation. In 2012, then-Deputy Defense Secretary Ash Carter established the Strategic Capabilities Office to find new ways to use existing weaponry to counter new threats. Then, Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Work designed the Third Offset Strategy to address the erosion of the US military’s technological superiority and to focus on technologies like artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing and data analytics. In 2017, DoD established an effort to automate and augment the military’s use of full-motion video in the campaign against ISIS. The Department partnered with industry to apply technology to automate functions and enable analysts to work more effectively and efficiently.

By 2022, Deputy Secretary of Defense Hicks launched the AI and Data Accelerator Initiative and directed the new Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office to take charge of the Global Information Dominance Experiments while leading the department’s Joint All Domain and Command and Control efforts. The benefits of this multi-year campaign of learning are evident every day as the U.S. helps Ukraine fight a digital war against an analog enemy.

Today, the CIA and broader IC face a daunting challenge. In 2021, the CSIS Technology and Intelligence Task Force published a remarkable report on the state of IC innovation and technology, finding that despite a plethora of opportunities to apply technology across intelligence missions, progress was blocked by a culture that was “resistant to change.” The report indicated that the IC was “averse to risk-taking, particularly in acquiring and adopting new technologies and integrating outside information sources.”

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To be fair, recent signs indicate that the IC may be preparing for its own technological revolution. For example, CIA Director William Burns created a Transnational and Technology Mission Center and appointed the Agency’s first-ever Chief Technology Officer. Similarly, the DNI-driven commercial cloud program has advanced to a multi-cloud environment. However, for the IC to leverage the Age of AI and progress against geopolitical and transnational threats, leaders must turn these organizational and contractual changes into mission wins.

Leading the AI revolution for intelligence

In 2017 DoD tackled the challenge of quickly processing massive volumes of video into actionable intelligence.  In 2023, the IC should apply AI to the massive declassification opportunity. Declassification imperatives include (1) enabling an informed citizenry to hold their government accountable; (2) building public trust; (3) combating the coming surge of mis/disinformation; (4) sharing more information with foreign partners (e.g., replicate the effort that preceded Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on other topics); and (5) saving taxpayer dollars used to maintain huge troves of classified data.

DNI Avril Haines announced in January, that the IC is already seeing some progress in piloting AI solutions against this challenge.  By publicly committing to prioritize this issue, being transparent about its progress, and achieving material impact, the IC will learn how to work effectively on a large AI program and set an example for other AI projects to succeed. 

Once the IC learns how to do Human+Machine teaming, AI can help the IC identify misinformation and deepfakes leading up to the next election; can generate content to bypass China’s censorship regime; dramatically improve offensive and defensive cyber operations; advance our ability to monitor foreign technology developments; and improve both analytic and human intelligence tradecraft.    

The IC also can supercharge American industry by setting both technical and ethical standards. If the IC can trust an AI to develop alternative hypothesis for a Presidential Daily Brief, surely a food manufacturer can trust an AI to identify alternative supply chain opportunities.

This statement from DNI Haines’ 2023 Annual Threat Assessment is profound: “Foreign intelligence services are adopting cutting-edge technologies—from advanced cyber tools to unmanned systems to enhanced technical surveillance equipment—that improve their capabilities and challenge U.S. defenses. Much of this technology is available commercially, providing a shortcut for previously unsophisticated services to become legitimate threats.” 

With the AI revolution now in full swing, the IC must do these same things—partner with the private sector and the broader defense community—to steal secrets and make sense of them.  Applying AI to aid in the declassification process has significant merits onto itself and can be the jolt that the IC needs to reemerge as a leader in adopting emerging technology.  

The Cipher Brief is committed to publishing a range of perspectives on national security issues submitted by deeply experienced national security professionals. 

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Ukraine’s operation to strangle supply lines in annexed Crimea and make it untenable for occupying Russians is going according to plan, with Kyiv one step closer to an attempt to liberate the Black Sea peninsula, an official said on Thursday.

The peninsula was rocked by explosions on Wednesday and Thursday. Attacks targeted the Russian navy’s Black Sea fleet and damaged a large vessel and a submarine at a key naval base in Sevastopol; and a Russian air force S-400 air-defense battery was reportedly destroyed in Western Crimea a day later.

Strikes in Crimea, which is Russia’s central logistics hub for its forces in southern Ukraine, have become routine in recent months amid Kyiv’s counteroffensive to reclaim territory occupied by Russian forces. Attacks have struck military targets in a push to weaken Moscow’s defenses and disrupt Russia from transporting equipment, weapons, and troops from mainland Russia into the peninsula.

This video grab taken from a Crimea24TV footage on July 17, 2023 shows the damaged Kerch Strait Bridge, linking Crimea to Russia, following an attack. Moscow said two drones had hit the structure in the early hours and blamed the Kyiv regime.
-/Crimea24TV/AFP/Getty Images

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has pledged to undo Putin’s annexation of Crimea.

While Ukraine didn’t immediately claim responsibility for strikes in Crimea’s Yevpatoria area on Thursday, Natalia Humeniuk, the spokesperson for the southern military command, appeared to hint at involvement from Kyiv.

“The concentration of military facilities, the presence of an airfield nearby—all this suggests that the work is being carried out absolutely as planned. The goals are legitimate, entirely military,” Humeniuk said on national TV.

And the commander of Ukraine’s air force, Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk, wrote on his Telegram channel after Wednesday’s Sevastopol strikes: “While the occupiers are still recovering from the night-time bombardment in Sevastopol, I would like to thank the pilots of the Ukrainian Air Force for their excellent combat work! To be continued…”

Meanwhile, on Monday, Ukrainian military forces said they had reclaimed control over four strategically vital oil and gas drilling platforms in the Black Sea near Crimea.

This week’s developments are just a sliver of a long-term, sophisticated operation by Ukraine to pave the way toward the peninsula’s recapture, experts assess.

“Raids on Crimea and oil/gas platforms to eliminate radar, then a complex drone/missile strike against Sevastopol. This is a very sophisticated approach to making Crimea untenable for the Russians,” former U.S. General Ben Hodges said on X, formerly Twitter, on Thursday.

Kerch Strait Bridge

Retired Army Lt. General Stephen Twitty, former deputy commander of U.S. European Command, told Newsweek in May that an attempt to retake the peninsula would involve Ukraine taking action to prevent Russia from resupplying from Crimea, whether it be logistics or whether it be troops.

Retired U.S. Marine Corps Colonel Mark Cancian told Newsweek that Ukraine will try to cut Crimea off, take out the strategically vital Kerch Strait Bridge that connects Russia with Crimea, and “just squeeze it over time make it untenable to hold.”

Cancian added that there will be an extended siege in a Ukrainian attempt to recapture Crimea.

Ukraine’s second strike on the Kerch Strait Bridge on July 17, which damaged its crucial railway, brought those objectives closer to reality, according to Humeniuk. She said last month that the peninsula is increasingly becoming an island in a logistical sense.

Supply of Russian logistics via Crimea has become complicated and slow, Humeniuk added, saying that, while other routes exist for transporting weapons and equipment, these are overloaded because they’re also used by civilians.

The Kerch Strait Bridge is a key supply route for Russia’s forces and is its sole land link with Crimea. It consists of two main parts—a four-lane roadway for vehicles and a railway bridge with two tracks—and is crucial to sustaining Moscow’s military offensives in southern Ukraine.

Importantly, Newsweek found that the July 17 strike on the bridge damaged its crucial railway, contrary to Russian claims that the attack affected only the roadway on spans of the structure.

Data and satellite images sent exclusively to Newsweek by Molfar, a global open-source intelligence agency, dated on July 17 and 23, show damage to railroad parts of the bridge.

While the visible portion of the railroad structure appears stable and is likely able to safely carry passenger cars, a source with knowledge of construction work at the Crimean bridge told Molfar that, as one column has cracks, the movement of freight trains across the bridge is no longer possible.

The railway link between annexed Crimea and Russia had enabled the Russian army to transport heavy equipment swiftly, and troops regularly relied on the railroad to deploy such machinery to Crimea. This will now be hindered due to the damage caused by the explosions on July 17, and could have serious strategic implications for the Russian military presence in the region, Molfar researchers assessed.

Krym.realii, the Crimean project of the Ukrainian service of Radio Liberty, reported on September 6 that the July explosion on the Kerch bridge has greatly affected Russia’s military logistics of Russia. It added that its journalists noticed a large convoy of Russian military equipment and armored trucks taking alternative routes this month. Local residents told the publication that Russian military convoys have been moving through the peninsula day and night, creating emergency situations on the roads.

The Washington D.C.-based Institute for the Study of War assessed last month that Ukraine’s strikes on key bridges linking Crimea to southern Ukraine and to mainland Russia are impacting Moscow’s ability to move resources. The think tank said this was also hampering the Kremlin’s efforts to fend off Kyiv’s ongoing counteroffensive to reclaim its territory.

Cancian told Newsweek this month that attacks on the Kerch Bridge are important steps for squeezing Crimea.

“I think the Ukrainian characterization is correct; Russian logistics are becoming more complicated and slowing down. The bridge, with its road and rail connections, provided an easy way of getting supplies and equipment from Russia proper to Crimea and on to the western parts of the front,” Cancian said.

Fuel Shortages

Elina Beketova, an in-residence fellow with the Democracy Fellowship program at the Center for European Policy Analysis, told Newsweek that Ukraine has been successful in strangling Russia’s supply lines and hampering Russia’s logistics, particularly with the July 17 strike on the Kerch bridge.

“Since then, the occupying authorities have been closing the Kerch bridge from time to time, and it has less functional capacity to have the same amount of transport on it, as it was before the attack,” said Beketova, noting that in recent days, people on local social media have been complaining about the lack of diesel fuel at gas stations or that it is more expensive than in other places.

The occupying authorities of Crimea confirmed that they had interruptions and logistical problems with its delivery and conducted a meeting of the so-called government on the topic of the deficit of fuel on September 11, said Beketova.

“According to the local occupying authorities, as of September 12, they had fuel reserves for four days, and their main task was to support agricultural producers during fieldwork,” she said. “But even after it, people complained that they would still have problems finding the fuel or that it was expensive.”

Newsweek has contacted Russia’s foreign ministry for comment via email.

Do you have a tip on a world news story that Newsweek should be covering? Do you have a question about the Russia-Ukraine war? Let us know via worldnews@newsweek.com.

Update 09/14/23, 10:08 a.m. ET: This article was updated with quotes from Elina Beketova.