Day: September 26, 2023

Serving as president of Russia between 2008 and 2012, Dmitry Medvedev was always a placeholder for Vladimir Putin. Still, his presidency illustrated Putin’s high trust that Medvedev could serve competently. In 2023, however, Dmitry Medvedev is a sad shadow of his former presidential self.

President Medvedev sought to balance Putin’s power structure with sometimes bold economic and anti-corruption reforms. While these reforms had very limited success, Medvedev also facilitated a tentative warming of relations with the West. Today, Medvedev is little more than a social media influencer.

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While Medvedev is technically deputy chairman of the National Security Council, his influence over national security policy is subordinated to uber-hawk Nikolai Patrushev. It is Patrushev who sets the ideological framework for Putin’s war in Ukraine. It is Patrushev who meets with top foreign officials such as U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan. Already, this week, Paturshev has met with senior officials in Oman and Egypt. He met with China’s foreign policy chief Wang Yi last week. Patrushev is the man who shapes Russia’s security activities on Putin’s behalf. Patrushev is the man who holds sway over Russia’s sprawling intelligence apparatus. Especially, that is, when it comes to that apparatus’s darker arts.

Medvedev?

He spends his days making photo-op visits to troops and arms factories. But Medvedev’s main occupation seems to be that of ranting on the Telegram social media outlet. On Telegram, Medvedev launches daily tirades against the West and Ukraine. He appears to believe that this stance earns continued relevance and protection in a Kremlin that has responded to its unprecedented international isolation with a siege mentality. The problem for Medvedev is that where Patrushev and others such as energy tsar Igor Sechin retain real influence, the former president appears little more than a social media troll.

Take Medvedev’s latest Telegram post on Tuesday, which lists claimed affronts to Russia. As Medvedev put it, “1. Fraternization of Canadian animals led by Prime Minister Trudeau in his parliament with the Nazis. 2. Deliveries of Abrams tanks from NATO arsenals. 3. Promises to supply longer-range Army Tactical Missile System missiles to the Kyiv authorities.”

Medevev concludes, “It seems that Russia is being left with less and less choice other than a direct conflict with NATO on the ground, which has turned into an openly fascist bloc like the Hitler Axis, albeit of a larger size. We are ready, although the result will be achieved at much greater cost to humanity than in 1945…”

This play to the threat of NATO-Russia nuclear war is designed to reinforce Western fears that continued support for Ukraine will lead to Armageddon. It’s a play on the old Soviet gambit of attempting to divide and blackmail NATO into concessions. The problem for Medvedev is that he isn’t a very credible messenger. He is understood in Western intelligence circles to be a person of limited influence. When Putin makes these threats, they come across far more seriously, for example. Instead, Medvedev’s daily posts come across as almost pathetic.

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There’s a deeper silliness to Medvedevs’ apocalyptic dreaming. While the U.S. would suffer grotesque loss of life in any nuclear war with Russia, its vast overmatch in nuclear weapon delivery systems and forces means it would likely survive such a war as a functioning nation-state. In contrast, Russia would suffer the same fate as that of the GRU-directed Wagner Group formation which attacked a U.S. military base in Syria in February 2018. Namely, annihilation. Putin senses this and the Russian general staff knows it. So while the U.S. must proceed with some caution on matters such as supporting future Ukrainian ground offensives into Crimea, it must also assess Russian nuclear threats in the context of their theatrical purpose.

That Medvedev is the conductor of these theatrics testifies to his best days being behind him.

As of 8 p.m. local time on Tuesday, the number of displaced Artsakh residents crossing into Armenia had reached 28,120, government officials reported.

Artsakh residents displaced after last week’s large-scale attack by Azerbaijan began leaving their homes and heading to Armenia over the weekend, most traveling by car via the Lachin Corridor.

More that 20,800 people have already been registered upon their arrival into Armenia, where they are being provided with accommodations on an as-needed basis.

Thus far, 3,253 people were given accommodations, while the rest have said they have places to stay in Armenia.

The government is sheltering 1,305 people in the Syunik Province, 700 in Vayots Dzor, 833 in Gegharkunik, 268 in Tavush, and 147 in the Armavir province.

Armenia’s health ministry announced that the remains of 125 people were transported to Armenia on Tuesday.

Artsakh’s Human Rights Defender Gegham Stepanyan clarified that the transported remains were of victims of last week’s attack and not those caught in the explosion of a fuel depot near Stepanakert on Monday. “The bodies and remains of the casualties of the fuel tank explosion in Stepanakert are planned to be brought to Armenia in the coming days,” Stepanyan wrote on his Facebook page.

The mass movement of the population has created traffic jams across Stepanakert and on the roads leading to the Lachin Corridor and the Hakari bridge.

A caravan of cars can be seen for miles heading toward Armenia, with Russian peacekeeping forces monitoring the roads to ensure the safety of passengers.

ISTANBUL — Turkey’s chances of acquiring F-16 fighter jets from the U.S. have been boosted by Sen. Bob Menendez stepping down as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in remarks published Tuesday.

Menendez, the senior Democratic senator for New Jersey, has been a vocal opponent of Turkey receiving aircraft to update its fighter fleet. He stood down from the influential role last week following federal charges that he took cash and gold in illegal exchange for helping the Egyptian government and New Jersey business associates.

“One of our most important problems regarding the F-16s were the activities of U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez against our country,” Erdogan told journalists on a flight back from Azerbaijan on Monday. His comments were widely reported across Turkish media.

“Menendez’s exit gives us an advantage but the F-16 issue is not an issue that depends only on Menendez,” Erdogan added.

Ankara has been seeking to buy 40 new F-16s, as well as kits to upgrade its existing fleet. The request was backed by the White House but ran into opposition in Congress, where Menendez raised concerns about Turkey’s human rights records as well as blaming Ankara for fractious relations with neighboring Greece.

Referring to talks between U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan in recent days, Erdogan said: “It would be beneficial to turn this situation into an opportunity and meet with (Blinken) again.

“In this way, we may have the opportunity to accelerate the process regarding the F-16s. Not only on the F-16s, but on all other issues, Menendez and those with his mindset are carrying out obstructive activities against us.”

Erdogan also openly linked Turkey’s F-16 bid to Sweden’s application for NATO membership, which is expected to be debated by the Turkish parliament after it returns from summer recess on Oct. 1.

He said Blinken and Fidan had discussed Sweden’s NATO bid, adding: “I hope that if they stay true to their promise, our parliament will also stay true to its promise.”

Questioned on whether the bid was tied to Turkey receiving the F-16s, Erdogan said: “They are already making Sweden dependent on the F-16 … Our parliament follows every development regarding this issue in minute detail.”

Stockholm applied for NATO membership alongside Finland following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year. Only Turkey and Hungary are yet to ratify its application. Neither Washington nor Ankara have openly admitted a link between Sweden’s bid to the F-16 deal but it is widely acknowledged unofficially.

Erdogan was returning from a one-day trip to Nakhchivan, an Azerbaijani enclave separated from the rest of the country by a 33-kilometer (21-mile) stretch of Armenian territory.

Following Azerbaijan’s rout of Armenian forces in a 24-hour blitz in Nagorno-Karabakh last week, Baku has raised hopes of opening a land bridge between Nakhchivan and the rest of Azerbaijan, known as the Zangezur Corridor.

Erdogan said Turkey and Azerbaijan would “do our best to open this corridor as soon as possible.” He added that if Armenia would not agree, an alternative route could go through Iran, a move that Erdogan said Tehran regards “positively.”

In a wide-ranging briefing, Erdogan also raised the prospect of a visit to Turkey by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in October or November.

The two leaders met for the first time in New York last week while attending the U.N. General Assembly. Israel is one of a number of regional powers that Ankara has been patching up relations with in recent years, following more than a decade of hostility.

The Turkish president also addressed the issue of Cyprus, divided between ethnic Turkish and Greek communities for 49 years.

He reiterated his support for a two-state solution, with international recognition for the Turkish administration in the island’s north. Turkey is the only country to recognize the breakaway entity. The international community broadly supports the unification of the island under a federal system.

“We will raise our voices even more for Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus to be recognized by other countries,” Erdogan said.