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Russian Infighting Raises Questions About Wagner Group’s Future


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Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at political infighting following the Wagner Group revolt, a deadly missile strike in Ukraine, and the French president’s rare rebuke of racist policing.

Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at political infighting following the Wagner Group revolt, a deadly missile strike in Ukraine, and the French president’s rare rebuke of racist policing.

Wagner Revolt Triggers Infighting

Russia’s paramilitary Wagner Group faces an uncertain future after Saturday’s failed insurrection and the expulsion of the mercenary organization’s top leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, to Belarus on Tuesday. But one thing is clear: To the outside world, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power has started to look unsteady.

According to U.S. officials, a senior Russian military leader had advance knowledge of Prigozhin’s rebellion against Putin. Gen. Sergey Surovikin, a former top Russian commander in Ukraine, helped Prigozhin plan last weekend’s siege of Rostov-on-Don and march toward Moscow. Surovikin was replaced in January but maintained influence over Russia’s war operations. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov denied the allegations on Wednesday, saying unity remains strong within Russia’s military.

If Surovikin or any other Russian commanders assisted Prigozhin, then Putin could face a bigger split within his ranks than previously thought—especially after Prigozhin called for the resignations of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov. In this way, Putin’s very authority and grip on power could be threatened.

Despite increasing concerns over political infighting, the Kremlin dropped criminal charges against Prigozhin for “armed mutiny” on Tuesday, just as the Wagner leader arrived in Belarus, where he will remain in exile. According to Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko, Putin suggested executing Prigozhin but was convinced not to during negotiations in which Lukashenko told the Russian leader that “a bad peace is better than any war.”

Meanwhile, Wagner may face consequences beyond Russia. On Tuesday, the U.S. Treasury sanctioned four companies and one individual connected to the organization’s work in Africa. The four corporations—Midas Ressources, Diamville, Industrial Resources General Trading, and Limited Liability Company—all assist in funding the Wagner Group through Africa’s illegal gold and diamond mining trades. Andrey Nikolayevich Ivanov, Wagner’s facilitator in Mali, was also sanctioned.

“The sanctions showcase how Washington is aiming to cripple the Wagner Group’s international operations beyond the war in Ukraine, even as Moscow may cripple Wagner’s operations closer to home,” FP’s Robbie Gramer reported.

This ruling came the same day that numerous U.S. federal agencies issued warnings of terrorism, money laundering, human rights abuses, and environmental degradation related to sub-Saharan Africa’s illegal gold trade. As of February, Wagner had generated more than $250 million from natural resources in Africa and the Middle East in exchange for security services.

Deadly missile strike in Ukraine. On Wednesday, Ukrainian authorities arrested an individual suspected of assisting Russia in directing a missile strike at a pizza restaurant in Kramatorsk, Ukraine. The Tuesday attack killed at least 11 people, including three minors, and wounded 61 others. Multistory buildings, homes, schools, and various other structures were also damaged in the assault.

Initial reports said the attack was conducted with S-300 missiles, a long-range surface-to-air missile system that has a poor track record of target accuracy. However, Ukrainian officials said Russian troops used Iskander ballistic missiles, which have high accuracy and are primarily used against military targets such as command centers. Kramatorsk is a front-line city that houses the Ukrainian army’s regional headquarters, suggesting it may have been deliberately targeted.

France protests racism in policing. On Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron condemned the killing of a 17-year-old by police—a rare rebuke of law enforcement in a country with a history of discriminatory policies. The teenager, who was of North African descent, was shot and killed on Monday while stopped at a traffic light near Paris. One of the police officers accused of shooting the boy is now under investigation for voluntary homicide. “It is unexplainable and inexcusable,” Macron said. “Nothing justifies the death of a young man.”

Protests erupted across France on Tuesday night following the teenager’s killing, where individuals launched fireworks and set cars on fire. Around 1,200 police officers were deployed during the demonstrations, resulting in 31 arrests. According to French Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin, 2,000 more police officers will be deployed Wednesday night after 24 officers were injured during the protests.

Flare-up over Nagorno-Karabakh. Violence escalated this week over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region: Four Armenian soldiers were killed on Wednesday by an Azerbaijani artillery and drone attack. The deaths came 24 hours after Azerbaijan’s defense ministry alleged one of its soldiers was shot by Armenian troops.

Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan met with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday in Washington to discuss mediating the yearslong conflict; both Armenia and Azerbaijan claim Nagorno-Karabakh as their own territory. However, regional security and stability remain out of reach.

Next time someone tells you they’re not getting any younger, remember that in some parts of the world, it’s possible. South Koreans wound back their age clocks by one or two years on Wednesday after a new law went into effect that requires citizens to follow the international method of counting age. Until Wednesday, South Koreans were born 1 year old, and every Jan. 1, they added a year. Talk about turning back time.


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Why Wagner Group leader Prigozhin’s 2nd plane head for Azerbaijan capital Baku?


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Why did the second plane of Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin head for Azerbaijani capital Baku, ask Azerbaijani media.

One of Prigozhin’s Embraer ERJ-135bj Legacy 650 planes went to Baku on Thursday. This is evidenced by flight tracking service Flightradar, according to which, this plane left Moscow at 3:30pm and landed in Baku at 7:04pm.

Russian sources claim that this is one of the two planes that belonged to Yevgeny Prigozhin, who died in a plane crash on Wednesday.

After Prigozhin’s plane crashed, the second plane returned to Moscow, but then left for Baku the next day.

There is no information about the passengers of this plane that went to the Azerbaijani capital, the media report.

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Armenia cancels military drills, widening rift with Moscow


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YEREVAN, Armenia (AP) — The prime minister of Armenia said Tuesday that his country has refused to host military drills planned by a Russia-dominated security pact, an announcement that reflected the Armenian government’s growing tensions with Moscow.

Nikol Pashinyan has repeatedly criticized Russian peacekeepers for failure to secure free transit along a corridor linking Armenia and the separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh that Azerbaijani activists have blocked since last month.

Speaking at a news conference Tuesday, Pashinyan said that Armenia considers the military exercise the Moscow-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization planned for later this year “inappropriate in the current situation.”

“At least this year, these drills won’t take place,” he said.

Pashinyan’s move followed his refusal in the fall to sign a conclusive document from a meeting of the leaders of CSTO member nations in Yerevan, Armenia’s capital.

Nagorno-Karabakh lies within Azerbaijan but has been under the control of ethnic Armenian forces backed by Yerevan since a separatist war there ended in 1994. That conflict left not only Nagorno-Karabakh itself but large chunks of surrounding lands in Armenian hands.

In 44 days of heavy fighting that began in September 2020, the Azerbaijani military routed Armenian forces, forcing Yerevan to accept a Russia-brokered peace deal that saw the return to Azerbaijan of a significant part of Nagorno-Karabakh. The agreement also required Armenia to hand over swaths of land it held outside the separatist region.

Lachin province, which lies between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia, was the last of the three areas on the rim of Nagorno-Karabakh that Armenian forces surrendered in December 2020. Russia deployed nearly 2,000 peacekeepers for at least five years to ensure safe transit across the region, to monitor the peace deal and to help refugees return.

But travel across the Lachin corridor has been blocked since Dec. 12 by Azerbaijani activists, who demanded access to what Azerbaijan has described as unlawful mining sites in Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenian authorities have described the blockade as part of efforts by Azerbaijan to extend its control over the region and urged the Russian peacekeepers to unblock the road.

The Azerbaijani move has left Russia in a precarious position. Armenia hosts a Russian military base, and Moscow has been the country’s top ally and sponsor. But the Kremlin also has sought to maintain warm ties with oil-rich Azerbaijan. Western sanctions over the Russian invasion of Ukraine have made Russia increasingly dependent on Azerbaijan’s main ally, Turkey.

With its attention focused on the fighting in Ukraine, Russia has taken a wait-and-see attitude on the Lachin corridor blockade, angering Armenia.

“Russia’s military presence in Armenia not only fails to guarantee its security, but it raises security threats for Armenia,” Pashinyan said Tuesday.

He noted that the blockade of the Lachin corridor is intended to “break the will of the people of Nagorno-Karabakh,” adding that Armenia will also seek support from the U.S. and the European Union to help ease the tensions with Azerbaijan.

After the Russian peacekeepers’ five-year mandate is over, Armenia could invite U.N. peacekeepers to come in “if Russia fails to fulfill its function to ensure security for the population of Nagorno-Karabakh,” Pashinyan said.

The Russia-brokered 2020 peace deal also called for the creation of a transportation link between Azerbaijani and its Nakchivan exclave via Armenian territory. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev accused Armenia on Tuesday of reneging on its promise to provide such a transit corridor.

“Whether Armenia wants it or not, it will be implemented,” Aliyev said in televised remarks, describing the corridor to Nakchivan as Azerbaijan’s “natural right.” He added, though, that Azerbaijan has no plans to wage another war against Armenia.

Asked to comment on Armenia’s decision to cancel the planned military drills, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow would ask Yerevan to clarify its position. “In any case, Armenia is our close ally, and we will continue our dialogue, including the most complex issues,” he told reporters.

Peskov previously rejected a claim by the secretary of Armenia’s Security Council that Moscow had pressured Armenia to join a union of Russia and Belarus.

Commenting on the claim Tuesday, Pashinyan said that Moscow had not made any official request to that effect but noted that “the reality isn’t as simple as it seems.” He added: “Sometimes, it’s not the text but the subtext that needs to be considered.”

“Armenia’s sovereignty is an absolute value,” the prime minister said.


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Is Russia preparing a coup in Armenia?


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The Armenian telegram channel Bagramyan 26, considered close to Pashinyan, reported on September 8 that Russia was preparing a coup in Armenia with the help of members of the mercenaries from the private military company Wagner.

We publish this material with some abbreviations:

At the time of Prigozhin’s death, there were about 3,000 fighters of the Wagner PPK in Armenia. Recently (mostly from Rostov) they have been joined by about 2,000 contract soldiers (mostly ethnic Armenians). Considering Pashinyan’s recent statements about the mistake of choosing Russia as a strategic partner and accusing the Russian leadership of non-compliance with agreements on the Karabakh issue, the Kremlin has authorized the scenario of a coup d’etat in Armenia.

The goal of this plan is to remove Pashinyan and his team from power using the Wagner militants present in the country. The “last straw” for Putin was the joint Armenian-American military exercises. Currently, the number of Wagnerians in Armenia has increased to 12 thousand. The command to act was “for the day before yesterday.” The Russians’ main bet is on the top management of the military, intelligence services, and police, where there are plenty of Russian agents. In the middle and lower levels, support from Russians is much less. Russia does not have worthy candidates to replace Pashinyan (both Kocharyan and Sargsyan are popping up there…) and is going all-in.

The likelihood of success is extremely low, given the presence of numerous military formations in and around Yerevan. However, the emphasis is on destabilization on the contact line of Nagorno-Karabakh and on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border.

In continuation of the process, the cards of pro-Russian candidates for the mayor of Yerevan will be played (Tandilyan – Ruben Vardanyan’s candidate, Marutyan – Patrushev’s candidate, Tevanyan – Kocharyan’s candidate). -0-


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A shift in leadership dynamics: Samvel Shahramanyan becomes a key figure of Armenians in Karabakh


A shift in leadership dynamics: Samvel Shahramanyan becomes a key figure of Armenians in Karabakh

Baku/01.09.23/Turan: September 1 marked a significant turning point for the Armenians residing in the populated areas of the Karabakh Economic Region of Azerbaijan. Samvel Shahramanyan assumed the d ……

A shift in leadership dynamics: Samvel Shahramanyan becomes a key figure of Armenians in Karabakh

Turan News Agency – turan.az https://turan.az

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Baku/01.09.23/Turan: September 1 marked a significant turning point for the Armenians residing in the populated areas of the Karabakh Economic Region of Azerbaijan. Samvel Shahramanyan assumed the de facto civilian leadership position, being appointed “state minister” with considerable authority by the now-resigned and illegitimate president, Araik Harutyunyan. The post of “president” is awaiting a successor, with the region’s illegal “parliament” set to make an appointment within a week.

This recent shift in power can be traced back to a series of events that began on July 29, 2023. On that day, “parliament” speaker Artur Tovmasyan voluntarily stepped down from his position, acknowledging his inability to influence unfolding events. Subsequently, on August 9, David Ishkhanyan, a representative of the radical nationalist Dashnaktsutyun party, was elected as the new “speaker,” signaling a transfer of elected power into the hands of staunch adversaries of Azerbaijan.

With Harutyunyan’s departure, his ally “state Minister” Gurgen Nersisyan, known for impassioned anti-Azerbaijan rhetoric, also resigned. Another notable departure was Artak Beglaryan, known for his fervent animosity towards Turks. Ruben Vardanyan, once a “state minister,” then an “adviser to the state minister,” also exited the political stage.

Stepping into this shifting landscape is Samvel Shahramanyan, who formerly held the post of “secretary of the Security Council.” Shahramanyan’s career trajectory is marked by his roles in various governmental departments since 1999. Notably, he served in the local “National Security Service” from 1999 to 2008, followed by positions such as “head of the operational investigation Department of the tax Service” (2008-2010), “chief enforcement officer of the Ministry of Justice” (2010-2013), “head of the Criminal Investigation Board of Khankendi,” (2013-2018), “Director of the Service National Security” (2018), “Minister of Youth, Sports and Tourism” (2020), and “Secretary of the Security Council” (2023).

Shahramanyan has faced personal tragedy as well; his son lost his life in the 44-day war. Yet, his career progression has been attributed to his apparent avoidance of major confrontations with corrupt officials, as noted by blogger David Stepanyan. Stepanyan asserts that Shahramanyan’s rise through the ranks was facilitated by his tendency to turn a blind eye to certain practices, particularly high-ranking officials’ evasion of taxes. This has allowed him to consistently climb the ladder of success.

In contrast to his predecessor, Shahramanyan has not faced a criminal case initiated by the Prosecutor General’s Office of Azerbaijan, positioning him potentially more favorably for negotiations with Baku. However, his stance on the demands made by Azerbaijan remains unknown as of now.

As the leadership dynamics continue to evolve in the region, Shahramanyan’s ascendancy and his potential role in shaping the region’s relationship with Azerbaijan will undoubtedly be closely watched by both local and international observers.-0–


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Ukraine’s Zelenskiy: Our partners have eased up on sanctions on Russia


Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy during a press conference with Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy during a press conference with Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen (not pictured) in front of the presidential palace in Kyiv, Ukraine, September 6, 2023. Ritzau Scanpix/Ida Marie Odgaard via REUTERS Acquire Licensing Rights

Sept 8 (Reuters) – Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Friday that his country’s allies had eased sanctions on Russia and called for a renewed drive to impose further punitive measures on Moscow.

“At this time, we see too long a pause by our partners in terms of sanctions,” he said in his nightly video address. “And very active Russian attempts to evade sanctions.”

Zelenskiy said keeping the pressure on Moscow should focus on Russia’s energy sector, its access to microelectronics and its financial sector.

“There are three priorities: further sanctions against Russia’s energy sector, real restrictions on the supplies going to the terrorists of chips and microelectronics in general and continued blocking of Russia’s financial sector,” he said.

“The world’s sanctions offensive must resume.”

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Oleg Nikolenko had earlier said Ukraine rejected any suggestion of easing sanctions against Russia as part of efforts to restore the U.N.-backed agreement to ship grain through the Black Sea.

“Easing part of the sanctions regime against Russia in exchange for the resumption of the grain agreement would be a victory for Russian food blackmail and an invitation to Moscow for new waves of blackmail,” Nikolenko wrote on Facebook.

Reporting by Oleksander Kozhukhar and Ron Popeski; editing by Jonathan Oatis and Cynthia Osterman

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.


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Azerbaijan will allow aid into Karabakh from Armenia if aid from its side is let in, official says


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By Andrew Osborn

LONDON (Reuters) -Azerbaijan is ready to allow Red Cross aid from Armenia into the ethnic Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh enclave if Red Crescent aid from Azerbaijan is let in at the same time, Hikmet Hajiyev, foreign policy adviser to President Ilham Aliyev, told Reuters.

Nagorno-Karabakh, internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but run by ethnic Armenian authorities, is at the centre of a rancorous stand-off, with Azerbaijan restricting movement along the only road to it from Armenia to thwart what it says is arms smuggling.

Armenia says what it calls a blockade of the “Lachin corridor”, known as “the road of life” by ethnic Armenians in Karabakh, has caused acute shortages of food, medicines and other essentials.

Baku says it has let the Red Cross evacuate people to Armenia for medical treatment and that its own information shows there is no shortage of basic food staples, but it has not allowed food and other supplies in for some time.

Hajiyev said in an interview on Thursday that Azerbaijan was now ready to let the Red Cross bring in humanitarian aid on condition that the Red Crescent also be allowed to bring in aid, on a different road from Azerbaijan.

He said the two roads – the Lachin corridor and the Aghdam road – could be opened to aid simultaneously as part of a pilot scheme that could defuse tensions and spur long-running peace talks between Baku and Yerevan.

The idea had been discussed in a phone call between President Aliyev and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Sept. 1, he said.

“There was a suggestion for the simultaneous opening of the roads and Azerbaijan agreed and immediately agreed,” said Hajiyev, saying that part of the Aghdam road had been obstructed with concrete blocks by Karabakh’s ethnic Armenian authorities.

“Now one week has passed since the telephone call with Secretary Blinken and there is no movement.”

Yuri Kim, acting assistant secretary of state for the United States, spoke on Thursday of “progress toward immediately & simultaneously opening Lachin and other routes to get humanitarian supplies into Nagorno-Karabakh”.

“Opening routes and direct talks are key to resolving outstanding issues,” Kim said on X.

Ruben Vardanyan, a billionaire banker who was a top official in Karabakh’s ethnic Armenian administration until February, said Azerbaijan was wrong to try to attach preconditions to allowing aid to pass through the Lachin corridor.

Vardanyan, who has accused Baku of trying to “ethnically cleanse” the enclave by choking off supplies to it – something it denies – said a Russian-brokered 2020 ceasefire deal signed by Azerbaijan after a short war was meant to ensure that the Lachin corridor remained open to Armenia.

“Their President signed a trilateral ceasefire statement on November 9th (2020) and took responsibility for providing a corridor for uninterrupted connection,” Vardanyan said on X on Wednesday.

“However, they now refuse to implement that commitment and are attempting to impose new preconditions for opening the Lachin Corridor.”

(Reporting by Andrew Osborn; Editing by Kevin Liffey)


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Armenia to exercise with US troops next week in sign of frustration with Russia


Russia's President Vladimir Putin meets with Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev in Moscow

Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan attends a meeting with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev on the sidelines of the Eurasian Economic Union summit in Moscow, Russia May 25, 2023. Sputnik/Mikhail Metzel/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo Acquire Licensing Rights

Sept 6 (Reuters) – Armenia said on Wednesday it would host a joint army exercise with the United States next week, at a time of rising military tension with neighbouring Azerbaijan and open friction in its relationship with Russia.

The Armenian Defence Ministry said the purpose of the Sept. 11-20 “Eagle Partner 2023” exercise was to prepare its forces to take part in international peacekeeping missions.

A U.S. military spokesperson said 85 U.S. soldiers and 175 Armenians would take part. He said the Americans – including members of the Kansas National Guard, which has a 20-year-old training partnership with Armenia – would be armed with rifles and would not be using heavy weaponry.

The move comes at a time of intense Armenian frustration with its ally Moscow. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has accused Russia, distracted by its war with Ukraine, of failing to protect Armenia against what he called continuing aggression from Azerbaijan.

Olesya Vartanyan, senior South Caucasus analyst at non-profit conflict prevention organisation Crisis Group, said Armenia was sending a signal to Moscow that “your distraction and the fact that you are so inactive plays towards our enemy”, meaning Azerbaijan.

Despite the small scale of the exercise, Russia said it would be watching closely. It has a military base in Armenia and sees itself as the pre-eminent power in the South Caucasus region, which until 1991 was part of the Soviet Union.

“Of course, such news causes concern, especially in the current situation. Therefore, we will deeply analyse this news and monitor the situation,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

Russia maintains a peacekeeping force in the region to uphold an agreement that ended a war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2020, the second they have fought since the Soviet collapse.

The frustration between Russia and Armenia is mutual, with Moscow this week accusing Pashinyan of “public rhetoric bordering on rudeness”.

Vartanyan said that while Armenia and Azerbaijan are closer to a possible peace agreement than they have been for years, there is also a serious risk of a major new escalation between them.

Tensions are running high because of a nine-month Azerbaijani blockade of the highway linking Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh, an enclave that is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but is populated by around 120,000 ethnic Armenians.

Azerbaijan has justified its action by saying Armenia was using the road to supply weapons to Karabakh, which Armenia denies. The squeeze has led to shortages of fuel, medicine and food, including rationing of bread.

Vartanyan said footage on social media in recent days was showing increasing Azerbaijani military movements near the front line between the two countries. “It doesn’t look good at all,” she said.

Reporting by Mark Trevelyan

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Chief writer on Russia and CIS. Worked as a journalist on 7 continents and reported from 40+ countries, with postings in London, Wellington, Brussels, Warsaw, Moscow and Berlin. Covered the break-up of the Soviet Union in the 1990s. Security correspondent from 2003 to 2008. Speaks French, Russian and (rusty) German and Polish.


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Russia summons Armenia’s ambassador as ties fray and exercises with US troops approach


  • The Russian foreign ministry has taken the step of summoning the ambassador from its long-standing ally, Armenia, in protest against several recent developments, signaling tensions that are putting strain on their close relations.
  • In an official statement, the ministry pointed to what it described as a series of unfriendly actions by the Armenian leadership in recent days. 
  • The joint military exercises in question are set to commence on Monday, involving around 175 Armenian troops and 85 U.S. troops, with a focus on peacekeeping operations.

The Russian foreign ministry on Friday summoned the ambassador from longtime ally Armenia to protest upcoming joint military exercises with the United States and other complaints, highlighting growing tensions that are straining traditionally close relations.

“The leadership of Armenia has taken a series of unfriendly steps in recent days,” the ministry said in a statement, citing the exercises that will begin Monday, Armenia’s provision of humanitarian aid to Ukraine and its moves to ratify the Rome Statute that created the International Criminal Court, which this year indicted President Vladimir Putin for war crimes connected to the deportation of children from Ukraine.

The ministry also complained of remarks by the chairman of Armenia’s parliament that it regarded as insulting to ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, who is noted for her harsh comments about other countries.

About 175 Armenian troops and 85 from the United States will start exercises on Monday focusing on peacekeeping operations.

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Landlocked Armenia has close military ties with Russia, including hosting a Russian military base and participating in the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization alliance.

However, Armenia has become increasingly disillusioned with Russia since the 2020 war with Azerbaijan. The armistice that ended the war called for a Russian peacekeeping force to ensure passage on the road leading from Armenia to the Nagorno-Karabakh ethnic Armenian enclave within Azerbaijan.

But Azerbaijan has blocked that road, called the Lachin Corridor, since late December and Armenia repeatedly has complained that Russian peacekeepers are doing nothing to open it. The road’s blockage has led to significant food shortages in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Armenia this year refused to allow CSTO exercises on its territory and it declined to send troops to bloc exercises in Belarus.


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Is the end of self-proclaimed Artsakh near? – Global Comment


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The self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh – internationally recognized as Azerbaijan’s Karabakh region – is facing probably the most difficult period in its 32-year history. Baku seems determined, one way or another, to establish full control over the territory where ethnic Armenians make up the majority of the population, although they refuse to reintegrate into Azerbaijan.

On September 2, 1991, a joint session of the Councils of People’s Deputies of the former Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Oblast and Shahumyan region – at the time both territories being part of the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic – proclaimed the Republic of Artsakh. To this day, not a single UN member, including Armenia, has recognized Artsakh (the Armenian name for Nagorno-Karabakh) as an independent state.

“After all, Karabakh is Azerbaijan. Does everyone recognize this? Everyone recognizes. Does anyone say it’s not? No”, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said on July 23, talking about the humanitarian situation in the region that is still under the Armenian de facto control.

Reports suggest that a humanitarian disaster is unfolding in Nagorno-Karabakh. After establishing control over the Lachin Corridor – the only land link between Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh – in April 2023, Azerbaijan has cut off all shipments of food, fuel, and other critical supplies to the region from Armenia. As a result, according to local sources, the Karabakh Armenians are facing “mass starvation and total hunger”. Baku, however, denies such claims.

“The allegations on the humanitarian situation in the region are completely unfounded”, said Jeyhun Bayramov, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister, on July 25.

Baku offered to supply Nagorno-Karabakh via a crossing at the nearby Azerbaijani city of Aghdam. But the Armenians reportedly refuse take food from Azerbaijan, and have blocked the road leading from Aghdam to Nagorno-Karabakh’s capital of Stepanakert. The authorities in Baku insist that their refusal to accept aid from Azerbaijan demonstrates that the claims on the humanitarian situation are “political blackmail”.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, on the other hand, argues that Azerbaijan has “illegally blocked the Lachin Corridor”, and that it “should have no control” over the road. Various foreign powers, including Russia, have called on Baku to immediately re-open the Lachin corridor to humanitarian, commercial, and passenger traffic. Quite aware that no major global actor is willing to jeopardize its relations with energy-rich Azerbaijan over the Karabakh Armenians, Aliyev is unlikely to be ready to make any concessions to those he perceives as separatists.

“Why should goods to Karabakh be delivered from another country? This is illogical”, Azerbaijani leader stressed.

Baku sees the crisis in the region as an internal matter, and aims to absorb the ethnic Armenian-controlled territory into Azerbaijan. Karabakh Armenians, however, fear that that they have no future in Azerbaijan, emphasizing that “any status for Artsakh within Azerbaijan would be tantamount to ethnic cleansing”.

That is why they have repeatedly called for a UN-mandated peacekeeping mission to be deployed to the region as a “security guarantee”. In other words, the UN troops would likely replace some 2,000 Russian peacekeepers, who have been stationed in Karabakh since November 2020, which is when Armenia and Azerbaijan signed the Moscow-brokered ceasefire deal that ended the 44-day war the two nations fought over the mountainous region.

Under the 2020 agreement, Russia is supposed to ensure road transport between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, but the Kremlin proved unable to prevent Azerbaijan from blocking the Lachin Corridor. That is why many Armenians want the Russian troops out of the region, and that is one thing they have in common with Azerbaijanis. Baku is impatiently waiting for 2025, which is when the Russian peacekeepers’ mandate expires, and is unlikely to be willing to allow any other foreign mission in Karabakh.

Meanwhile, Baku is expected to continue pressuring Karabakh Armenians to either integrate into Azerbaijani society, or to leave the region. For Azerbaijani policy makers, the current crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh is a win-win situation. Some 120,000 Karabakh Armenians would not represent a serious threat to Azerbaijan – a country of around 10 million people – although there is no doubt that many in Baku would also be quite happy without them.

It is, therefore, not surprising that the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh’s president Arayik Harutyunyan resigned on September 1 as a result of what he described as “unstable geopolitical situation” and “Artsakh’s internal political and social environment”.

Along with his resignation, Harutyunyan also dismissed Gurgen Nersisyan as state minister, which is the second-highest-ranking executive position in Nagorno-Karabakh. In other words, they seem to have decided to abandon the sinking ship.

Although it is still unclear what effect the change in leadership will have on the situation in the region, there is no doubt that the conditions the Karabakh Armenians are living in will not improve in the foreseeable future, if it all. Sooner or later, Azerbaijan may attempt to break up the blockade of the Aghdam–Stepanakert road, even though such a move could lead to an escalation of the conflict.

But even with Armenia’s help, the self-proclaimed Artsakh Defense Army has zero chance against the Azerbaijani Armed Forces – one of the strongest militaries in the post-Soviet space. Quite aware of that, Pashinyan will almost certainly seek to avoid any large-scale confrontation with Azerbaijan. Instead, he may try to find a way to de facto abandon Nagorno-Karabakh, although in such a way that would allow him to safe face.

Image: EUMAs monitor within Armenia looking at Azerbaijan’s military checkpoint on the Lachin corridor and the blocked humanitarian convoy of trucks that was sent to Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) by EU Mission in Armenia (EUMA), an entity of the European-Commission