Category: Michael Novakhov – SharedNewsLinks℠

The FBI revealed new details from the investigation into the assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump in a Wednesday call with media, including that the shooter engaged in “detailed attack planning” well in advance of the rally. But more than six weeks after the attack, investigators still haven’t uncovered a motive.

The FBI has done an extensive analysis of 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks‘ online search history and activity, according to Kevin Rojek, a special agent in charge of the FBI’s Pittsburgh field office who also spoke on the call. That has provided “valuable insight into his mindset, but not a definitive motive,” Rojek said.

Investigators found a search from Crooks’ account in late September of 2023 of Trump’s campaign schedule and upcoming Pennsylvania appearances, according to Rojek.

But Trump doesn’t appear to have been the only potential target.

Rojek said between April and July of 2024, Crooks searched campaign events for both Trump and President Joe Biden, including events that were scheduled to happen in western Pennsylvania. The bureau uncovered searches on July 5 for, “When is the DNC convention,” and “When is the RNC in 2024,” apparent references to the Democratic and Republican National Conventions ahead of the 2024 presidential election.

In the 30 days before the attack, Crooks conducted more than 60 searches related to either Biden or Trump, Rojek said.

‘Detonating cord,’ ‘blasting cap,’ ‘how to make a bomb’: shooter searches since 2019

Crooks’ search history suggests he may have been considering a violent attack for several years.

Rojek said as early as September 2019, and continuing into the summer of 2024, Crooks conducted multiple searches about explosive devices, including “detonating cord,” “blasting cap,” “how to make a bomb from fertilizer,” and “how do remote detonators work.” Crooks also searched for ammonium nitrate, nitromethane, and other materials consistent with manufacturing explosive devices.

Law enforcement found two explosive devices in Crooks’ car.

FBI director Christopher Wray testified a couple of weeks after the shooting that the devices had receivers to enable remote detonation and law enforcement found a transmitter on the roof with Crooks. However, he also said investigators didn’t believe detonation would have worked because the receivers were switched off.

Rojek said Wednesday that components Crooks used to make those devices were legal to buy and readily available online.

‘No definitive ideology associated with our subject, either left-leaning or right-leaning’

Federal investigators have been working to learn who Crooks was and why he tried to kill Trump ever since the Republican presidential nominee took a bullet to the ear at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13. Crooks also killed rally attendee and father of two Corey Comperatore, while critically wounding two others.

Robert Wells, executive assistant director of the FBI’s national security branch, said on the call that the FBI not only hasn’t identified a motive but also hasn’t uncovered any co-conspirators or associates of Crooks who had advance knowledge of the attack.

“And I want to be clear, we have not seen any indication to suggest Crooks was directed by a foreign entity to conduct the attack,” Wells added.

Rojek said investigators aren’t even clear whether Crooks had partisan political views. “We’ve seen no definitive ideology associated with our subject, either left-leaning or right-leaning. It’s really been a mixture and something that we’re still attempting to analyze and draw conclusions on.”

Antisemitic posts by the shooter?

Rojek also addressed testimony FBI Deputy Director Paul Abbate gave before Congress on July 30 when he said investigators had found “the first real indication” of extremist views and politically violent communications through a social media account they were working to verify belonged to Crooks.

Abbate mentioned more than 700 comments between 2019 and 2020, including antisemitic and anti-immigration messages, in particular.

The FBI’s assessment “is that those statements were associated with accounts associated with the subject, and we continue to work to determine if they were, in fact, attributed to the subject himself,” Rojek said.

‘Where will Trump speak from?’: preparations before attack

On July 4, just nine days before the attack, Crooks searched for details on the Butler campaign event, which took place within easy driving distance of his home. Two days later, Crooks showed an interest in a previous political assassination, searching for how far Lee Harvey Oswald was from John F. Kennedy when Oswald shot him.

Rojek described that search, which has been previously reported, on Wednesday.

He also clarified that Crooks looked into specific details about the set-up for the campaign rally. Crooks entered online searches on July 6 for, “Where will Trump speak from at Butler Farm Show,” “Butler Farm Show podium,” and “Butler Farm Show photos.” Rojek said those were exact quotes, but didn’t clarify what the spelling, punctuation, or capitalization looked like.

Crooks also searched for “ballistic calculator” on July 9 and looked up the weather in Butler on July 10, Rojek said.

Family ‘extremely cooperative,’ have received Crooks’ body

Rojek clarified that the FBI remains in contact with Crooks’ family members, who he said have been “extremely cooperative.”

Law enforcement released Crooks’ body to them after Pennsylvania’s Allegheny County Office of the Medical Examiner conducted an autopsy and the FBI and Pennsylvania State Police both agreed with the Butler County Coroner’s Office’s decision to release the remains.

“I want to stress that it is not standard procedure or practice for the FBI or any law enforcement agency to request that the coroner or medical examiner maintain indefinite custody of a deceased subject’s body once the investigative purposes of our agency and our partner agencies are completed,” he said.

Autopsy and toxicology reports indicated Crooks wasn’t on drugs or alcohol when he died, and that he was killed by a single gunshot wound to the head, Rojek said. Crooks was pronounced dead at 6:25 p.m. EDT on July 13.

Encrypted email accounts accessed, Trump briefed on investigation

Rojek said Crooks had overseas encrypted email accounts, but the level of encryption wasn’t more sophisticated than any standard, widely used email service that’s internet-based. He said the FBI has successfully accessed those accounts and analyzed their contents, although it is continuing to “identify and exploit” Crooks’ accounts more broadly.

At a July congressional hearing, FBI and Secret Service officials said law enforcement identified Crooks as suspicious well before the attack and shared a photograph of him nearly an hour before he opened fire at about 6:11 p.m. EDT. A local officer radioed seeing Crooks on the roof from which he opened fire with “a long gun” about 30 seconds in advance.

Investigators previously revealed Crooks used an ‘AR-style 556’ rifle in the attack. That weapon was and is operational, Rojek said Wednesday. He confirmed the FBI successfully test-fired it and also matched the casings found on the roof to the rifle.

During a standard victim interview with Trump, the FBI and the Pennsylvania State Police provided the Republican presidential nominee “with an in-depth briefing on the investigation” and answered his questions, Rojek said.

Since the assassination attempt, Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle resigned under intense pressure over the failure to protect Trump at the campaign event. Members of Congress and the wider public have continued to press the service about how Crooks was able to obtain a line of fire on Trump.

Investigators have conducted nearly 1,000 interviews in total, in addition to issuing dozens of subpoenas and analyzing hundreds of hours of video footage, according to Rojek.

CIA Director Burns Exposes Putin’s Grand Plan: A Threat to the Western World

Let’s
talk about Vladimir Putin, the man who’s made it his life’s mission to threaten
NATO and every democratic Western country out there. No one has a better grasp
on what makes Putin tick than CIA Director William J. Burns. This guy isn’t
just any intelligence chief—he’s someone who’s been up close and personal with
Putin for years, long before the world saw the full extent of Russia’s
aggression.

     Burns knows Putin like few others. He
served as U.S. Ambassador to Russia from 2005 to 2008, then climbed the ranks
as Undersecretary of State and Deputy Secretary of State, before taking the
helm at the CIA. This isn’t just a man reading reports from afar—Burns has sat
across the table from Putin, most recently in November 2021, right before
Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine. He was the last American official to speak
to Putin before the tanks rolled in.

     Burns paints a chilling picture of Putin:
a combustible mix of grievances, ambition, and deep-seated insecurity. This
isn’t just some ordinary leader we’re dealing with—Putin is a former KGB
officer, trained to see the worst in human nature. He’s suspicious of everyone,
always on the lookout for vulnerabilities to exploit.

     Forget about appealing to his better
nature—Putin doesn’t believe in that. He’s all about control, intimidation, and
getting even. Burns doesn’t mince words—he calls Putin an “apostle of payback.”

     What’s more, over the years, Burns has
seen Putin evolve into a leader who’s completely isolated himself from dissent.
Back when Burns was ambassador in Moscow, there were still people in Putin’s
inner circle who dared to disagree with him. That’s all gone now.

     Today, Putin surrounds himself with
yes-men—advisors who either echo his hardline views or have learned the hard
way that questioning his judgment is a career-ending move.

     Burns admits that trying to predict
Putin’s tactical decisions is like trying to crack a code. But one thing is
clear: Putin is driven by a sense of destiny. He’s convinced that it’s his
mission to restore Russia’s status as a great power, and he sees Ukraine as the
linchpin in that plan. For Putin, controlling Ukraine isn’t just a strategic
necessity—it’s a matter of personal entitlement. He’s deluded himself into
believing that Ukraine isn’t a real country, and that it’s Russia’s right to
dominate it.

     This isn’t just about Ukraine, though.
Putin’s ambitions stretch far beyond that. He dreams of reinstating the Soviet
Union, pulling all those breakaway satellite nations back under Moscow’s
control. And he’s not just talking—he’s taking action. I describe these
ambitions in my spy thriller novel, where Putin sends former KGB agents, GRU
spies, and Spetsnaz assassins into the Caribbean to undermine America’s
presence there, reflecting the same tactics he used in Ukraine, sending them in
years before his invasion. That’s the backdrop for Mission
of Vengeance, where Corey Pearson, a seasoned CIA spymaster, goes
toe-to-toe with Putin’s operatives as they try to destabilize the region.

     Putin isn’t just a threat to Ukraine—he’s
a threat to the entire Western world. His obsession with power and control is
pushing us all toward the brink. And as William J. Burns knows all too well,
this is a man who won’t stop until he’s achieved his twisted vision of a
restored Russian empire. The question is: how far will we let him go before we
stop him? 

Robert
Morton is a member of the Association of Former Intelligence Officers (AFIO)
and authors the ‘Corey
Pearson- CIA Spymaster’ series. Check out his latest spy thriller, ‘Mission of Vengeance’ 

“There you were, sitting there, writing to your friends in the chat room,” she recalls him saying. He proceeded to dispassionately quote word for word several Telegram messages she had written from her bed. “‘They’re unlikely to bust it down,’” he recited.

“And so,” he said, “we knew that you were there.”

Matsapulina was speechless. She tried to hide her shock, hoping to learn more about how they’d accessed her messages. But the officer didn’t elaborate.

When she was released two days later, Matsapulina learned from her lawyer that on the morning she was arrested, police had searched the houses of some 80 other people with opposition ties and had arrested 20, charging each with terrorism related to the alleged bomb threat. A few days later, Matsapulina gathered her belongings and boarded a flight to Istanbul.

In April, after having made it safely to Armenia, Matsapulina recounted the episode in a Twitter thread. She ruled out the chance that anyone in her close-knit group had been cooperating with security forces (they’d all also left Russia by then), which left two conceivable explanations for how the officers had read her private Telegram messages. One was that they had installed some kind of malware, like the NSO Group’s infamous Pegasus tool, on her phone. Based on what she’d gathered, the expensive software was reserved for high-level targets and was not likely to have been turned on a mid-level figure in an unregistered party with about 1,000 members nationwide.

The other “unpleasant” explanation, she wrote, “is, I think, obvious to everyone.” Russians needed to consider the possibility that Telegram, the supposedly antiauthoritarian app cofounded by the mercurial Saint Petersburg native Pavel Durov, was now complying with the Kremlin’s legal requests. Telegram would later posit a third possible explanation: That in the few hours after Matsapulina’s arrest and before she was questioned, FSB officers had extracted her messages using a phone-hacking tool like Cellebrite.

Matsapulina’s case is hardly an isolated one, though it is especially unsettling. Over the past year, numerous dissidents across Russia have found their Telegram accounts seemingly monitored or compromised. Hundreds have had their Telegram activity wielded against them in criminal cases. Perhaps most disturbingly, some activists have found their “secret chats”—Telegram’s purportedly ironclad, end-to-end encrypted feature—behaving strangely, in ways that suggest an unwelcome third party might be eavesdropping. These cases have set off a swirl of conspiracy theories, paranoia, and speculation among dissidents, whose trust in Telegram has plummeted. In many cases, it’s impossible to tell what’s really happening to people’s accounts—whether spyware or Kremlin informants have been used to break in, through no particular fault of the company; whether Telegram really is cooperating with Moscow; or whether it’s such an inherently unsafe platform that the latter is merely what appears to be going on.

In the decade since its founding in Russia, Telegram has grown to become one of the biggest social networks in the world, with 700 million users—yet only about 60 core employees. “For us, Telegram is an idea,” Durov has said. “It is the idea that everyone on this planet has a right to be free.”

The platform, now based in Dubai, has minimal content moderation aside from a stated commitment to taking down illegal pornography, IP rights violations, scams, and calls for violence. Often described in the press as an “encrypted” or “secure” messaging app, Telegram has fashioned itself as a refuge for safe, anonymous communication, but in fact it requires users to go out of their way to set a chat as “secret”; unlike on WhatsApp or Signal, end-to-end encryption is not the default. Still, Durov has repeatedly managed to benefit from the stumbles of other tech giants, particularly when user privacy is at stake. In January 2021, a PR crisis surrounding WhatsApp’s data-sharing with Facebook helped drive millions of people to Telegram, an exodus Durov called possibly the “largest digital migration in human history.”

In the US, Telegram has been relatively slow to catch on, though in the wake of Donald Trump’s ban from Facebook and Twitter in January 2021, it has increasingly become a hotbed for far-right groups like the Proud Boys and followers of QAnon. But in many parts of the world, Telegram is mainstream. In Brazil, where the app has been downloaded on more than half of the country’s smartphones, much of the January 2023 insurrection was planned on the platform. Telegram has also been crucial for pro-­democracy activists in Hong Kong and in countries under Russia’s thumb, like Belarus and Ukraine. In the latter, it has become the preferred app for disseminating government advice for avoiding air strikes—as well as for Russian disinformation.

But it is in Russia itself that Telegram has become nearly indispensable over the past year, thanks to the Putin regime’s wartime clampdown against Western tech. Since the conflict began, Russian authorities have branded Telegram’s main rival, Meta, an “extremist” organization, in part for permitting certain users in Ukraine to post calls for violence against the Russian military. Russia then blocked Meta’s Facebook (which had some 70 million users in the country) and Instagram (80 million). Telegram’s Russian user base has soared from 30 million in 2020 to nearly 50 million today, surpassing WhatsApp as Russia’s most used messaging platform. (The Kremlin controls all of the most popular internet companies based in Russia, including ­VKontakte, a ­Facebook-like social network cofounded by Durov in 2006 that has nearly 70 million users.)

WASHINGTON — The Biden administration is increasingly concerned that the intensifying military alliance between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un could vastly expand Pyongyang’s nuclear capabilities and increase tensions in the Asia-Pacific region, six senior U.S. officials told NBC News.

U.S. officials are also bracing for North Korea to potentially take its most provocative military actions in a decade close to the U.S. presidential election, possibly at Putin’s urging, the officials said. 

The timing, they said, could be designed to create turmoil in yet another part of the world as Americans decide whether to send President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump back to the White House.

“We have no doubt that North Korea will be provocative this year. It’s just a matter of how escalatory it is,” a U.S. intelligence official said. 

U.S. intelligence officials accused Russia of interfering in the 2016 election to help elect Trump. The Biden administration had tense relations with Russia, which collapsed after it invaded Ukraine in 2022.

After the publication of this story, Steven Cheung, a Trump campaign spokesman, said “the only ‘October surprise’ will be the look of shock” among reporters when Trump wins re-election.

With Putin expected to visit North Korea to meet with Kim in the coming weeks, U.S. officials expect them to solidify a new deal to expand transfers of military technology to Pyongyang. 

“2024 is not going to be a good year,” said Victor Cha, senior vice president for Asia and Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “It’s going to be a bit of a roller coaster.”

A burgeoning alliance

U.S. intelligence officials believe Putin is providing North Korea with nuclear submarine and ballistic missile technology in exchange for Pyongyang’s sending Russia large amount of munitions for its war in Ukraine, the senior U.S. officials said. North Korea provides Russia with more munitions than Europe provides to Ukraine, including millions of artillery shells.

Officials are also concerned that Russia might help North Korea complete the final steps needed to field its first submarine able to launch a nuclear-armed missile. 

In September, North Korea unveiled a submarine, based on an old Soviet model, but U.S. officials said Pyongyang was most likely exaggerating its capabilities. They said the submarine still needed additional technology before it could deploy or launch a nuclear-armed missile. 

Despite repeatedly offering to begin talks without any conditions, the U.S. has had no significant dialogue with the Kim regime for three years, the officials said. The administration reached out to North Korea again this year, but it did not respond.

U.S. officials said they do not have an entirely clear understanding of the types of technology Russia is supplying North Korea. Unlike weapons transfers that can be physically tracked, sharing of military technology is not as easily detected. 

“The higher-end Russia technical assistance comes in forms that are very difficult indeed to monitor,” a senior administration official said.

U.S. officials cautioned that the North Korean ammunition is most likely old and unreliable. But North Korea sent the artillery at a time when Ukraine was struggling with stockpiles and had to ration ammunition, so the influx gave Russia an advantage on the battlefield.

The officials said that in exchange for the ammunition it is providing Moscow, North Korea wants Russia to provide it with ballistic missile parts, aircraft, missiles, armored vehicles and other advanced technologies.

In recent months North Korea has continued to advance its missile program, including testing a solid-fuel engine for a hypersonic missile and other incremental advances that together have made its missile program more reliable, U.S. officials warn. 

Pyongyang has long sought a long-range ballistic missile able to fly thousands of miles and then re-enter the atmosphere with the payload intact. U.S. officials warn that Russia could now be helping it achieve the final steps. A nuclear-capable missile with survivable re-entry vehicles would present a significant challenge for U.S. missile defense systems. 

U.S. officials also said there has been increased activity at one of the North Korean nuclear test facilities, which could indicate preparations for another test. Satellite images published in April by Beyond Parallel, a project examining the Korean Peninsula at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, showed activity at Tunnel No. 3 at the Punggye-ri nuclear facility.

The group said that “both the United States and South Korea have assessed North Korea as having completed all the required preparations for conducting a seventh nuclear test from the tunnel.”

The Biden administration has been expecting a nuclear test from North Korea for some time. The U.S. recently prepared contingency plans for how to respond if Kim takes aggressive actions in the demilitarized zone with South Korea or shells South Korea’s border islands, which he has not done since 2010. 

“We are going to be ready and prepared,” the senior administration official said, noting the administration’s coordination with South Korea and Japan.

U.S. officials said they are also concerned that Moscow could help North Korea with its domestic manufacturing of weapons and even create a defense industrial base partnership. 

An ‘October surprise’?

Whether or not Putin encourages Kim to take provocative actions designed to create a so-called October surprise in the U.S. presidential election, a second senior administration official said Russia might hesitate to such a step. The official said China, which has also grown closer to Russia and helped Putin wage his war in Ukraine, typically does not want instability in the region.

Still, U.S. officials concede there is much about the Russia-North Korea alliance — and where it could go from here — that they do not know. Increased tensions in the Asia-Pacific region would come after two wars have broken out since Biden took office: one in Ukraine and the other between Israel and Hamas. 

Trump has argued that both wars are a result of Biden’s leadership and would not have happened were he in office. Biden White House officials vehemently dispute that claim.

The increasingly close relationship between Putin and Kim represents a major shift from when Russia worked with the U.S. in the past to try to rein in North Korea. Now, Moscow is using its veto power on the U.N. Security Council to give Pyongyang cover to evade sanctions enforcement measures intended to constrain its nuclear program. 

“This is an enormous shift,” the second senior administration official said.

Published August 30, 2024 at 1:23 PM EDT

The 2024 presidential election cycle has seen its share of headlines in recent months:

• A party feverishly trying to convince an incumbent president not to run for re-election.
• A candidate getting shot at during an apparent assassination attempt.
• The sitting president bowing out of the race and immediately endorsing his vice president to replace him.
• A candidate with a real chance of becoming America’s first African-American, Asian-American, female President. 

“This has been unprecedented,” said Eastern Connecticut State University Presidential historian Thomas Balcerski.

Balcerski said adding to the list of unprecedented events is the public’s reaction to former President Donald Trump’s running mate, J.D. Vance.

“We’ve seen a party who brought about a vice presidential nominee that has proven historically unpopular and has actually fallen in its approval ratings more than any other candidate,” he said.

On top of that Balcerski said Vice President Kamala Harris’s nomination is notable, because we now have “a Democratic National Committee with a candidate who’s received no votes in the primary.”

So, what can history teach us about how this most unique Presidential election season will play out? According to Balcerski, history says no matter what the polls say today, a surprise is probably coming.

“We’ve been talking as if the election is somehow decided in June or July and August. It’s not,” Balcerski said. “It’s decided in those final months of October and November, and famously or infamously, we always seem to have something in those last couple of weeks, which we now call the ‘October surprise,’ that could change the entire course of the race.”

The history of the ‘October Surprise’

An “October Surprise” is now defined as ”an unexpected political event or revelation in the month before a presidential election, especially one that seems intended to influence the outcome,” according to The Oxford English Dictionary

But Balcerski says that is only the most recent definition.

“It didn’t actually have a political meaning,” Balcerski said. “It’s an interesting term that actually comes out of advertising, when department stores would give a sale. We now might call it more like Black Friday.”

A little more than four decades ago, Balcerski said the term’s evolution into a political phenomena began in earnest.

“It really took on historical or political meaning in 1980, when President Reagan’s campaign manager was fired right in the eve of the election, and then he ended up beating President Carter anyway,” Balcerski said. “That was considered the first ‘October Surprise.’”

October Surprises have been numerous since Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential run.

“In 2016, it would seem the ‘October Surprise’ may have peaked with, in that case, news that came out against candidate Donald Trump about some of his conduct and behavior in 2005 this is the famous entertainment Hollywood Video,” Balcerski said.

Then came a second surprise.

“We also saw on that same week, but what an incredible week it was, that the FBI had reopened an investigation into Hillary Clinton’s staff and use of a private email server,” he said.

In 2020, a major October Surprise was Trump getting sick with COVID-19, as well as Hunter Biden’s laptop. The New York Post published a story in mid-October 2020 detailing documents found on the device.

“And so here we are now, in 2024 with ‘anything can happen,’” Balcerski said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if it does.”

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The FBI is under fire after an internal watchdog report released yesterday found that the agency is continuing to mishandle child sex abuse cases.

It comes three years after the agency failed to investigate USA Gymnastics physician Larry Nassar.

In the new audit, the inspector general found that agents missed responding to 42 cases marked for “immediate attention.” That’s a staggering 12% of the cases he reviewed.

The auditors also noted a failure to report cases to local law enforcement and to follow FBI policies. They noted a lack of staffing, highlighted by one agent assigned simultaneously to 60 cases.

The FBI says it is learning from its mistakes and will implement the watchdog’s recommendations. However, lawmakers call the report “damning” and “outrageous.” Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Ct.) is calling for a hearing next month.

It remains to be seen whether or not President Biden remains the Democrats’ nominee for president, amid growing calls to replace him atop the ticket. But at this moment, the race is frozen in place. 

Indeed, Donald Trump’s lead in national polling — now sitting at 3 points (47 percent to 44 percent) per the RealClearPolitics polling average — has remained remarkably consistent for months. This is true even after Biden’s disastrous debate performance and the discontent it engendered among Democrats.  

Since last November, the race has been stubbornly rangebound, with Trump’s lead over Biden consistently within a 1 to 4-point range, per RealClearPolitics moving averages. 

Moreover, even if Vice President Kamala Harris were to replace Biden, polls show there would be no significant movement. Trump’s lead over Harris, sitting at 3 points (48 percent to 45 percent), is identical to the former president’s lead over Biden.  

Put another way, the debate — and the last 18 months of campaigning — did little to alter national polling in a race that is frankly stuck, due almost entirely to the fact that both Biden and Trump are so well known, and our country is extraordinarily polarized. 

What, then, could cause a decisive shift in Biden or Trump’s favor? Quite simply, the answer is an outside event. Or, as it’s otherwise known, an October Surprise. 

To that end, given that Biden’s and Trump’s strengths and weaknesses are familiar to voters, it is more likely that a truly pivotal October Surprise comes in the form of a foreign policy development that either drastically helps or harms Biden.  

For Biden, this might be the only way he can change a situation where he leads in only one of the 13 most recent major polls. 

Biden appears to recognize that an October Surprise, handled well, would be decisive. During Thursday’s press conference concluding the NATO summit, he spent much of the time on foreign policy, setting up for a breakthrough in either Asia, Europe, or the Middle East. 

In particular, the war between Israel and Hamas could end, potentially even as part of a larger regional peace deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia. That would be considerably more monumental than when Trump orchestrated the Abraham Accords in the final days before the 2020 election.

As the Washington Post reported on Wednesday, there appears to be a breakthrough on a temporary cease-fire in Gaza that may turn permanent. While this is no guarantee, if Biden were able to secure a stop in the fighting that lasted through the fall, it would be a significant boost for his embattled campaign.   

However, events could go the other way. The war could escalate with the outbreak of a true second front in Lebanon, given Hezbollah’s repeated attacks on Israel. If a full-scale war breaks out, particularly if Iran intervenes on behalf of Hezbollah, the U.S. may be drawn into a direct conflict with Iran and a significant war in the Middle East, for which Biden would be held responsible.

At the same time, events in Asia could quickly spiral out of control if China or even North Korea thinks it would face less resistance to an invasion of Taiwan or South Korea, respectively, under a weakened Biden than under Trump.  

All of this is to say that if there is a major geopolitical crisis, Biden will play an outsized role. If he rises to the occasion, it will do more to address concerns over his fitness than virtually any press conference or campaign rally ever could.  

Conversely, if Americans feel that Biden’s perceived weakness led to increased geopolitical chaos, it may be the nail in his campaign’s coffin. 

The first significant “October Surprise” that I remember came more than six decades ago. In October 1962, former President John F. Kennedy narrowly avoided what could have been a nuclear Holocaust by diffusing the Cuban Missile Crisis, giving Democrats momentum ahead of that year’s midterms. 

However, it is often hard to tell whether or not an October Surprise is truly a “game changer.” It is usually unclear how voters will react, regardless of what the event is. 

Most notably, the 2016 and 2020 elections had events that all could have been considered decisive October Surprises, yet only one is considered to have swayed an election. 

October 2016 saw two bombshells just days apart, with the release of the now infamous Access Hollywood tape featuring former President Donald Trump and then at the end of the month — 11 days before the election — then-FBI director James Comey informed Congress that the FBI was again looking into Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server. 

As FiveThirtyEight noted shortly after the 2016 election, immediately before the Comey Letter, Clinton had a sizable 6 point lead over Trump. Within a week of its release, her lead had been cut in half. In the “average swing state,” Clinton’s edge declined from roughly 5 points to under 2 points in the same period. 

At the same time, the Access Hollywood tape — which may have assumed would be the decisive surprise — was relegated to the background.  

Similarly, in 2020, the Trump campaign surely hoped that the revelations surrounding Hunter Biden’s laptop would be the decisive shock when the story broke that October, yet it made no difference in the end. 

As the race stands right now, Trump is the clear favorite. Even if national polling shows a race that has moved little, swing state polling underscores that conclusion.  

Yet there are nearly four months before Americans head to the polls, which is an immense amount of time in politics.  

While it is no guarantee that there will be an October Surprise, history has shown that within the closing months of a presidential campaign, the power of incumbents to shape perceptions of themselves, their ability to manage significant events and, ultimately, American public opinion, cannot be minimized nor ignored. 

Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant and the founder and partner at Schoen Cooperman Research. His latest book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.” 

A Ukrainian F-16 fighter jet may have been brought down by Ukraine’s own air defense in a case of friendly fire, a source in the country’s air force told Voice of America’s (VOA) Ukrainian service.

Kyiv said the F-16 crashed on Monday during a mission to repel Russian missiles, confirming the first loss of one of the U.S.-made fighter jets since their delivery to Ukraine was announced by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The pilot, lieutenant colonel Oleksii Mes, was killed in the crash, Ukraine’s Army General Staff said on Thursday.

Western-supplied F-16 fighter jets were used during a missile and drone barrage launched by Russia, the General Staff said, adding that the aircraft “demonstrated their high efficiency” and “four enemy cruise missiles were shot down by airborne weapons.”

“During the approach to the next target with one of the planes… the plane crashed, the pilot died,” it said.

Ukraine is considering the possibility that the F-16 crash was caused by friendly fire, the unnamed source in Ukraine’s air force said, adding that an investigation is ongoing into the incident.

“Various versions are being considered, including ‘friendly fire’ from our own air defense, a technical malfunction, and pilot error,” the source told the VOA on the condition of anonymity. “However, the exact causes will only be known after the investigation is completed.”

Newsweek has contacted Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry for comment by email.

Ukraine’s Air Command Zakhid said pilot Mes was killed “defending our country.”

“He heroically fought his last battle in the sky. On August 26, while repelling a massive Russian combined missile and drone attack, Oleksii destroyed three cruise missiles and one attack UAV. Oleksii saved Ukrainians from deadly Russian missiles. Unfortunately, at the cost of his own life,” the command said.

Zelensky had long called on his Western allies to provide his military with the advanced fighter jets to assist in the war against Russia, now in its third year.

In July, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Ukraine’s allies in NATO had started transferring the U.S.-manufactured jets to Ukraine. He said they would be “flying in the skies of Ukraine this summer to make sure that Ukraine can continue to effectively defend itself against the Russian aggression.”

F-16s were spotted earlier this month over the front line in Ukraine’s southern Kherson region, according to Pavlo Filipchuk, a Kremlin-installed official, who said they were flying above the Ukrainian settlement of Kakhovka “only to sow panic.”

Zelensky had confirmed days earlier that the aircraft had arrived in Ukraine and were already being used by Kyiv’s air force.

“I am proud of all our guys who have mastered these aircraft and have already started using them for our country,” the Ukrainian president said. “F-16s are already in Ukrainian skies, and there will be more.”

Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands and Belgium had pledged to send more than 60 F-16s to Ukraine this summer but Bloomberg reported on July 12, citing unnamed sources, that this year Kyiv may get far fewer of the jets than it had hoped—six this summer and up to 20 by the end of 2024.

Zelensky said on Tuesday that Ukraine had used F-16s to intercept missiles and drones launched by Russia.

Deputy Pentagon press secretary Sabrina Singh told reporters on Thursday that she was aware of the reports that the F-16 could have been shot down by Ukrainian air defense, but said she “can’t confirm it.”

“I don’t have that level of fidelity right now. So, in terms of if this pilot was killed and it was brought down by friendly fire, that I just can’t speak to. That would really be something for the Ukrainians to speak to,” Singh said.

She added: “The United States has not been asked to participate in any type of investigation to look into this incident.”

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