Iran has responded to US CENTCOM’s announcement by taking actions that are intended to intimidate global shipping firms and reinforce Iranian “control.” Regime media has attempted to intimidate global shipping firms by repeatedly denying CENTCOM’s assertions that US forces have de-mined the strait. The IRGC Navy claimed on August 31 that two sea mines stopped a supertanker attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz through what the IRGC deemed the “illegal route.” CENTCOM denied that any ships have struck Iranian mines in the strait.
Iran also attempted to re-deploy mines in the strait on August 30. CENTCOM announced that US forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island after observing the IRGC prepare to launch mines into the strait. These strikes are the first US strikes in Iran since July 29. This instance is also the first observed Iranian attempt in this war to deploy mines through a shore-based delivery method. The IRGC Navy exhibited a launcher that fired mobile mines from Fajr 5 rockets from the Iranian coast into the sea during a naval exercise in January 2025. Fajr 5 rockets have a range of approximately 75 kilometers.Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar)NEW: The Iranian regime is attempting to re-assert its control over the Strait of Hormuz by deploying mines and re-cultivating international perceptions of the threat to vessels in the strait after US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that it had cleared mines in the strait.
Other Key Takeaways:
CENTCOM announced that US forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island after observing the IRGC prepare to launch mines into the strait.
Iranian forces’ suboptimal methods to intimidate ships in the strait — including missile launchers instead of fast attack craft (FAC) to lay mines and FAC for detecting vessels — suggest that Iranian forces are adapting under military constraints that are limiting Iran’s ongoing ability to threaten vessels.
The Iranian regime is demonstrating increasing concern that worsening economic conditions could trigger renewed anti-regime protests and is expanding preventive measures to deter and suppress possible unrest.
Iran’s deteriorating economy is generating potential triggers for renewed unrest, but the regime has limited ability to address these problems, especially under the US economic campaign to isolate Iran.
Some Iranian-backed Iraqi militias are conditioning their disarmament on several conditions that the militias likely recognize the Iraqi federal government will not be able to implement, which underscores the militias’ intentions to resist disarmament.
Iran likely pressured these militias to condition their disarmament on the Iraqi federal government expelling Iranian Kurdish opposition groups to further incentivize the Iraqi government to crack down on these groups. The Iranian regime perceives Iraqi Kurdistan as a base for Israel and Kurdish opposition groups to cooperate and launch attacks against Iran.— https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2094615826548617588