Day: September 5, 2026

Second half of Martin’s post covers recent developments in Yemen, as Houthi forces have made gains against the Yemeni government, prompting what the government says were their airstrikes against Houthi forces to curb their advance. However, as noted by Martin below, the lack of some of the assets used in the strikes will likely induce Houthi retaliation against the Saudis in the near-term. We saw this happen with the ‘Yemeni government’ targeting of Sanaa Airport that induced this newest round of escalation between the Yemeni government, the Houthis, and Saudi Arabia.Martin Kelly (@_MartinKelly_)There’s a few moving parts this weekend that could see an escalation:

An Iranian tanker was struck this morning by US forces using ~4 missiles whilst 6nm off Kharg.  Reports indicate the vessel was hit by four projectiles within the Kharg Island anchorage area.

Kuwaiti VLCC AL KOUT unexpectedly transmitted its position via AIS whilst in the SoH – which could indicate an attack occurred, and could explain the US’ strike at Kharg considering the ‘Tanker for a Tanker’ policy.

In Yemen, Houthi forces were making significant gains against Gov forces. The Yemen military claimed they conducted airstrikes overnight. However, the Yem Gov doesn’t have aircraft, or the Storm Shadow missiles that were used.
So – I’d expect a Houthi retaliation against KSA in the next 24hrs. Possibly including strikes at Najran/Abha airports, Jizan or Yanbu energy, or Saudi-linked shipping.—  https://x.com/_MartinKelly_/status/2096193302269690352