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Day: July 30, 2026
MORE: Iran is attempting to bolster its air defense capabilities with assistance from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and improve its drone capabilities.
Three sources told Reuters on July 28 that Iran reportedly signed a deal through a Hong Kong-based company to buy between 300 and 400 PRC-made man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS).
Iranian forces may have previously used a Chinese-made MANPAD to shoot down a US F-15E fighter jet in April 2026.Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar)NEW: The Iranian regime likely launched a “surprise attack” on US forces in Jordan on July 28 to erode the United States’ willingness to undermine the regime’s efforts to achieve its war aims, including securing Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz. The regime likely calculated that it could degrade the United States’ willingness to continue the conflict by inflicting damage or US casualties during the current “pause” in strikes. (1/2)
Other Key Takeaways:
The IRGC Aerospace Force conducted the attack in Jordan, but it is unclear if there was consensus among various regime factions to conduct the attack. IRGC Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi, whom CTP-ISW continues to assess is playing an outsized role in decision-making, almost certainly supported the decision to launch the recent attack on Jordan. Those within the regime’s pro-negotiations camp may have also backed the strikes as they also seek to secure Iranian control over the strait, an end to the US military presence in the region, and other regime objectives.
The Iranian regime also likely sought for its attack on Jordan to signal the regime’s willingness to incur the risk of full-scale conflict with the United States in order to secure control over the strait.
The United States and Saudi Arabia conducted strikes targeting Iranian-backed Iraqi militia weapons and logistics supply sites across Iraq on July 28 in retaliation for Iraqi militia attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure and US interests in Iraq and the region.
The United States and Saudi Arabia also conducted several strikes on July 28 along the Iran-Iraq border targeting sites used for the Arbaeen pilgrimages. Iran intended to use the Arbaeen pilgrimage to move weapons and advisers into Iraq, according to Israeli media.
The US and Saudi strikes on July 28 reportedly killed at least four IRGC Quds Force officers in Diyala Province, which underscores the IRGC’s role in overseeing Iraqi militia attacks on the Gulf states and US interests in Iraq.
Iran is attempting to bolster its air defense capabilities with assistance from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and improve its drone capabilities.
The Houthis are threatening to expand their attacks on Saudi targets, likely in order to coerce Saudi Arabia to terminate its blockade against Houthi ports and airports. Unspecified regional sources also told Reuters on July 29 that the Houthis may start to impose fees on international commercial vessels transiting the Red Sea and Bab al Mandeb Strait.
An unspecified actor conducted a drone attack targeting a US-owned tanker at a Mediterranean port in Damietta, Egypt, on July 29.— https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2082625645780095449