Day: July 26, 2026

最後の最後でdisinfo解けて気持ちいンゴねぇ

BLUF:
Since the collapse of the U.S.-Iran MOU, both belligerents have signaled an intent to widen the conflict, with recent upscaled U.S. strikes reportedly being postponed by U.S. President Donald. J. Trump, with the hopes that the move will allow Iran time to return to the MOU framework. However, other indicators, including, potential U.S. efforts to de-risk, point to the president authorizing expanded strikes in the near-term.

Key Points:
– The U.S. military continues its renewed buildup of material, assets and ordnance to the region, after much of them had withdrawn from the region following the implementation of the nominal ceasefire.

Ex.
The below image, via  @TheIntelFrog and highlighted by us, shows C-17 flights into Erbil, Iraq alone have risen significantly in the past 72 hours (blue and red), with five flights being recorded in the last 24 hours (red).

– Flights within CENTCOM have also risen significantly.

– U.S. President Trump has repeatedly telegraphed that the U.S. is willing to expand the tempo and scale of strikes against Iran should they fail to return back to the MOU framework or continue to threaten the safe travel of commercial maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

– Iran has signaled its intent to expand the conflict also, with key Iranian decision-makers saying in the past couple weeks that any nation who hosts U.S. forces and/or aids in expanded strikes will be targeted. Iran has already expanded its kinetic responses to include Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), leaving only Israel out of the nations that have been struck by Iran since the renewal of hostilities.

– U.S. President Trump reportedly postponed an expanded strike campaign on Iran, according to Axios, in an effort to allow more time for diplomacy.

– Despite their threats, principal Iranian decision-makers, most notably Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, continue to acknowledge that mediation efforts are ongoing.

Analyst comment:
Reports that the escalation in Yemen between the Houthis, the internationally recognized government in Aden, and Saudi Arabia has been nominally tied to potential ceasefire efforts between the U.S. and Iran are noted, but said escalation has so far run parallel to and not in concert with the U.S.-Iran escalation ladder.

Assessment:
The U.S.-Iran MOU framework failed almost as soon as it was implemented, with both sides failing to realize convergence on key points of contention, namely Lebanon and the administration of the Strait of Hormuz. Such a dynamic allowed for the resumption of hostilities and the current regional escalation. President Trump has signaled his intent, through officials making comments to news organizations, to allow for a return to the MOU framework, and so has Iran. However both sides continue to clash on the administration of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, since the MOU’s implementation has announced that they will administer the strait and charge fees for such a service, directly clashing with the MOU’s edicts and the U.S. outlook. Therefore, it should be noted that short significant concessions from either belligerent, a return to the MOU framework is a return to such a dynamic.

Key Judgement:
– At the time of writing, barring significant concessions from either party, specifically surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, it is unlikely that the U.S. and Iran will realize convergence in a renewed MOU framework.

– Given the current U.S. regional military buildup, President Trump’s telegraphed intentions, and de-risking measures, it is highly likely that expanded strikes will be ordered, barring a concession by either party.

– With Iran’s promise to target nations that host U.S. forces/aid in strikes, it is likely that Iran, as a result of potential expanded U.S. strikes, will target Israel in retaliation, further expanding the conflict.

END
By  @DefenseBulletin