Day: July 23, 2026
Mobilization remains a very personal decision for Putin and is ultimately contingent on Putin’s perception of the battlefield situation and the Kremlin’s stability, and it remains unclear whether Putin will make such a decision in the near future or what his mobilization announcement would look like.Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar)MORE: The Kremlin appears to be rejecting any territorial concessions as part of a peace proposal and is reasserting Russia’s maximalist demands, which Putin presented in 2024 at a time when Russian forces were achieving notable battlefield advances, even as Russian forces struggle to achieve meaningful territorial advances across the frontline.
ISW has observed evidence to assess that Russian forces seized a net total of only 81.1 square kilometers thus far in 2026, due in part to a significant Ukrainian Spring-Summer 2026 counteroffensive and seized or infiltrated 626.85 square kilometers thus far in 2026. Russian forces do not control territory into which they have only infiltrated. Russian officials continue exaggerating Russian battlefield successes to construct a false reality that appears to be shaping Putin’s understanding of the situation and encouraging him to persist in refusing compromise on his demands.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed on July 22 that “American colleagues” have not yet rejected their “proposals” to which Russia agreed in Anchorage and that US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin reached unspecified agreements during the August 2025 Alaska Summit. Lavrov appears to have started accepting the reality that the United States and Russia did not sign any formal or legally binding agreements in Anchorage but is persisting in Kremlin claims that agreements were reached. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently confirmed on June 25 that Russia and the United States did not reach any agreement to end Russia’s war in Ukraine during the Alaska Summit. Lavrov is likely trying to set conditions to persuade the United States to officially commit to their Anchorage proposals ahead of or during his meeting with Rubio on July 23.— https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2080276755831762946
