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Day: April 21, 2024
The occupiers stormed the Avdiivka direction the most, where the Armed Forces of Ukraine repelled more than 30 attacks. Battles are not abating in the Bakhmut direction of the front. There, the Russians attacked 28 times, without success. 25 enemy assaults were repulsed in the Novopavlivka direction.
Is ‘Havana Syndrome’ Russian aggression or another media conspiracy theory? Long Beach Press Telegram
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On 12 March, rebel forces aligned against Vladimir Putin’s government launched a military incursion into Belgorod Oblast. This is the third such incursion in two years. Residents of Russian border villages fled in the face of violent clashes between paramilitary groups and Russian National Guard units. Both Ukraine and Russia claim some degree of victory or strategic advantage from these raids. These competing narratives create a grey zone of information. We will analyse the actual achievements of these raids, their potential impact on other restless Russian regions, and the probability of more cross-border attacks in the near future.
Key Judgement 1. It is likely that cross-border incursions into Belgorod Oblast prompt Russia to divert manpower and assets away from the east in order to protect its southern flank in the next 6 months.
Key Judgement 2. It is likely that cross border incursions into Belgorod will embolden other resistance groups within Russian republics in the next 6 months.
Key Judgement 3. It is highly likely that Ukraine will continue to sponsor cross-border incursions by Russian resistance groups in the next 6 months.
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