Chad is likely to become the next African nation where Russia is going to replace the Western footprint. This perspective goes in line with the Kremlin’s pattern of ousting Paris from African countries where it traditionally had sway, to establish colonial influence and natural resource control in the area (Idriss Déby Itno visited Moscow in January 2024).
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An Ethiopian Airlines flight brought some 130 Russian ‘instructors’ to the capital of Chad, N’Djamena. We believe they are from the Africa Corps – the Russian expeditionary force, successor to the Wagner militias. Russian ‘instructors’ arrived several days after the announcement of upcoming withdrawal of 75 American military trainers from the country, on explicit request by Chad’s military junta.
These new developments come a week before national elections scheduled for May 6 in Chad. Chad is the final African nation in the Sahel to see Russia’s footprint penetrating gradually, which coincided with the French and now American retreat. We noted, in 2023, the trend of Russia infiltrating into Chad, with high probability of taking political control over the Idriss Déby Itno’s regime.
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We believe there is a high chance of military bases being deployed in Niger, Mali and Sudan.Russian military ‘instructors’ arrived in Niamey on April 10, and were seen unloading equipment, including an air defense system. That kind of equipment means that a full-fledged base is going to be deployed, to establish military presence in the area. We doubt that Russia intends to back local regimes in fighting terrorism. The Kremlin most likely cares about protection and control of natural resources, as it’s going to extract them and bring to Russia, and showing its step-up in the region amid symbolic ousting of France and the U.S. from Africa. Russia’s relationship with local regimes is based on corruption and lobbying for authoritarian regimes in the UNSC. Following the elections in Chad, Russia is highly likely to use this area to bypass sanctions.