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In the wake of Telegram CEO Pavel Durov’s bombshell arrest in France last weekend and subsequent criminal indictment, much is still uncertain—particularly, how the high-stakes drama will impact Telegram’s massive crypto ambitions. 

This year, Telegram became perhaps the most prominent company to ever jump with both feet into the cryptosphere. The dominant messaging service encouraged the proliferation of an ecosystem of on-chain, in-app games and services powered by Telegram’s blockchain of choice, The Open Network (TON). Those so-called “mini apps” exploded in popularity this spring, largely thanks to their ability to earn users crypto rewards via token airdrops. 

Momentum from mini app activity catapulted Telegram to a record 950 million monthly active users in July, and Telegram has directly embraced TON by using it to pay channel operators a share of advertising revenue, along with launching an in-app currency called Stars that’s linked with TON.

The company’s new path appeared so limitless that some TON developers prophesied the app might soon ride its on-chain mini app model to become the West’s version of China’s “everything app,” WeChat.

But crypto is also, notoriously, a legally risky sandbox to play in. So now that Telegram appears to have awoken the regulatory beast, could the company’s crypto future be in jeopardy?

“How big do they want to get?”

The charges filed against Telegram CEO Pavel Durov on Wednesday do not mention cryptocurrency whatsoever. They focus instead on content related to illegal topics like child pornography and drug sales that Durov allegedly allowed to proliferate on his platform. 

But the timing of the indictment—in the midst of Telegram’s aggressive push to make crypto-backed financial services a central offering—speaks loudly, according to Seth Goertz, a former U.S. Attorney specializing in cryptocurrency and cybersecurity.

“The more they go down that road, the more they’re inviting scrutiny,” Goertz told Decrypt of Telegram’s finance and commerce-related ambitions. “How big do they want to get?”

The former prosecutor specifically pointed to the integration, in April, of the popular stablecoin Tether (USDT) with both TON and the Wallet app on Telegram. While the move was a massive boon for Telegram’s mini apps, allowing users to transact in a dollar-backed currency that doesn’t fluctuate nearly as much as TON’s native token, the stablecoin also has a long track record of fueling illicit activity due to that same attractiveness.  

“If governments are seeing large amounts of Tether being moved through Telegram, it is going to attract tremendous scrutiny, for sure,” Goertz said. “The dollar is a powerful thing.”

Decrypt reached out to numerous TON developers and creators of Telegram mini apps for this story regarding their views on Durov’s arrest, and how it might impact the future of Telegram’s crypto-related ambitions. All declined comment.

Telegram did not respond to multiple requests for comment on this story.

Crypto tech vs. crypto attitude

Not everyone is adamant that the factors that compelled the French government to arrest Durov have anything to do with crypto or any other technology peddled by Telegram—potentially indicating that the company’s “everything app” ambitions may not be the center of the story. 

Despite this week’s uproar on Crypto Twitter—which framed Durov’s arrest as an assault on user rights to privacy—Ben Rubin, the founder of the once-trendy, since-shuttered video chat app Houseparty, believes Telegram didn’t ruffle many feathers with its actual privacy features.

In reality, the app is actually less secure by default than other popular messaging platforms with automatic end-to-end encryption like Signal, iMessage, and even WhatsApp.

Crucially, though, Telegram’s leadership is notoriously standoffish when it comes to dealing with government entities. This created a perfect storm, in Rubin’s opinion, with Telegram sitting on lots of vulnerable data about its users, but refusing to hand it over. 

“My intuition is that this has nothing to do with crypto,” Rubin told Decrypt. “When a platform not only doesn’t protect user privacy—by not introducing end-to-end encryption—but also pisses off the regulators, you get the situation that you’re in now.”

In that sense, Telegram and Durov may now be in trouble less due to crypto tech, and more due to embodying the same kind of anti-establishment attitude that has fueled the crypto industry and made Durov something of a free speech icon.

When French prosecutors announced charges against Durov on Wednesday, they specifically underscored how Telegram’s failure to communicate whatsoever with government entities was a crucial factor that aggravated the entire situation.

“This indictment is the result of a thorough investigation into Telegram’s near-total lack of response to judicial requests, which has been a concern for multiple law enforcement agencies across Europe,” prosecutor Laure Beccuau said.

Rubin, who is currently building Towns, a permissionless app for group chats that runs on Ethereum layer-2 network Base, said such conflict could be easily avoided if Telegram adopted an inverse to its current approach: encrypting all user messages automatically, and letting law enforcement in—when necessary—to parse through other more extraneous data.  

“This is how you actually find a good balance where the regulators don’t have too much access to things, and they cannot abuse the power,” Rubin said. 

“But they actually need to do work,” he added of regulators. “And I think we will be in trouble if, for anyone who builds online communication, regulators come and ask to cooperate and we all give them the finger. That’s not going to work out.”

In recent days, Durov’s arrest has become a rallying cry for tech leaders ranging from Elon Musk to prominent crypto investor and former Coinbase CTO Balaji Srinivasan.

Crypto advocates in particular have rushed to the Telegram founder’s defense, framing his prosecution as an existential attack on the foundational pillars of the decentralization movement. 

But was it actually groundbreaking crypto tech that so irked the French government in Durov’s case? Or rather, his defiant and dogmatic personification of the crypto persona?

Edited by Andrew Hayward

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Pavel Durov, founder of Telegram, would have maintained ties with French counterintelligence. He was detained on August 24 but released on bail on August 29.

By Anthony Marcus, correspondent for Eurasia Business News, on August 31, 2024. Article n°1201.

During interrogation in Paris with French police, Pavel Durov said that he maintained ties with French counterintelligence officers and met with them in Dubai, revealed local newspapers. Telegram refused to cooperate with the French authorities, but Durov stressed that it complies with EU laws.

The founder of the Telegram messenger, Pavel Durov, during interrogation in Paris, said that he had maintained ties with representatives of the General Directorate of Internal Security of France (DGSI, counterintelligence), in particular, he met with them in Dubai, the Libération newspaper writes, citing a source.

According to the French newspaper, the Russian-French tech magnate made it clear that “it would be inappropriate for him to disclose information constituting a military secret”. What was discussed, the newspaper did not specify.

The source also said that Durov, in his own words, “as part of the fight against terrorism, has opened an official channel of communication with the DGSI with a hotline and a special email address.“

The exchange of information through these channels made it possible to prevent several terrorist attacks, the source told Liberation.

According to the French newspaper, after his arrest in Paris on August 24 when his private jet landed at Le Bourget airport near Paris, Pavel Durov expressed his readiness to cooperate with French law enforcement agencies and provided them with his mobile phone with an access code to it.

An employee of the French Ministry of Justice told Politico that Telegram refused to cooperate specifically with the French authorities, which caused disappointment in Paris.

Refusal to cooperate with the French authorities is among the charges brought against Pavel Durov in France after his detention. There are six of them in total. Only on charges of complicity in the administration of an online platform for making illegal transactions, the tech magnate faces up to ten years in prison and a fine of € 500,000.

Durov was detained on the evening of August 24 at Paris’ Le Bourget airport, where he flew from Baku on a private jet. Four days later, he was released under judicial supervision and after payment of a € 5 million bail.

In a statement published after Pavel Durov’s detention, Telegram said that the messenger complies with EU laws, and its moderation “meets industry standards and is constantly improving.” The position of the French authorities that the platform or its owner is responsible for abuses in the messenger was called absurd by Telegram.

The Kremlin said it was ready to help Durov, since he still has a Russian passport along with the French one. Consular access to the founder of Telegram was also requested by the UAE, of which he is also a citizen. In addition, Pavel Durov has citizenship of St. Kitts and Nevis.

Arrested at the airport Le Bourget on August 24, at 08:00 PM, the French-Russian businessman himself does not admit guilt, and the French President Emmanuel Macron stated that there is no politics in this investigation.

Pavel Durov’s net worth is currently estimated at $15.5 billion as of August 2024. This makes him the 150th wealthiest person in the world.

The EU authorities are also investigating, who believe that Telegram could underestimate the number of users in the EU in order not to comply with the norms for large IT companies, the Financial Times reports. In its reports, Telegram indicated that the messenger has less than 45 million users in the European Union. 

Read also : Gold : Build Your Wealth and Freedom

“The director of Telegram was detained as part of an ongoing judicial investigation,” French President Emmanuel Macron said, apparently meaning that this case is not a personal case agaisnt Mr. Pavel Durov, but a large investigation of various crimes committed by users of the Telegram messenger.

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© Copyright 2024 – Eurasia Business News. Article no. 1201.

During his interrogation in Paris, the founder of Telegram, Pavel Durov, he allegedly claimed to be in contact with officials from the French Directorate General for Internal Security (DGSI), the Paris-based counter-espionage agency, the French daily newspaper “Liberation” reported, citing sources close to the investigation.

Durov allegedly explained that he had “opened an official communication channel” with the DGSI, as part of operations to counter terrorist activities. Specifically, he had a telephone line and an email address at his disposal from the agency. According to Liberation sources, these communication channels prevented some terrorist attacks. Durov also claimed to have met with officials of the DGSI in Dubai, where he resides.

Durov was arrested at Le Bourget airport in Paris on August 24th. According to the Paris Prosecutor’s Office, he was arrested for lack of moderation on his instant messaging app, as well as for failing to collaborate in the fight against drug trafficking and the dissemination of child pornography content. The arrest took place “as part of a judicial investigation opened on July 8”, explained the Prosecutor’s Office.

According to the first press release issued by the Paris Prosecutor’s Office on August 26, Durov faces 12 charges, six of which have actually been brought against him at the moment. The first concerns the crime of aiding and abetting in relation to the “operation of an online platform to enable an illegal transaction by an organised gang”. The second refers to the “refusal to communicate or provide, at the request of the authorised authorities, the information and documents necessary to carry out and use the wiretaps authorised by law”. The third and fourth charges concern complicity in relation to the “possession of an image of a minor of a child pornography nature” and the “distribution, offering or organised making available of a pornographic image of a minor”. The fifth refers to drug trafficking, while the sixth concerns the transfer “without legitimate reason of equipment, tools, programs or data designed or adapted to compromise or access the functioning of an automatic data processing system”.

The seventh crime of which the founder of Telegram is accused concerns his alleged complicity in an “organized fraud”, while the eighth would see him guilty of “criminal association aimed at committing a crime or an offense punishable by five years in prison ”. The ninth charge concerns the “laundering” of proceeds deriving from crimes committed “by an organized gang”, while the tenth is related to the “provision of cryptology services to guarantee confidentiality without a declaration of conformity”. The last two charges brought by the French judicial authorities against Durov concern the “supply” and “importation” of a “cryptographic instrument that does not exclusively provide authentication or integrity checking functions without prior declaration”.

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The FBI revealed new details from the investigation into the assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump in a Wednesday call with media, including that the shooter engaged in “detailed attack planning” well in advance of the rally. But more than six weeks after the attack, investigators still haven’t uncovered a motive.

The FBI has done an extensive analysis of 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks‘ online search history and activity, according to Kevin Rojek, a special agent in charge of the FBI’s Pittsburgh field office who also spoke on the call. That has provided “valuable insight into his mindset, but not a definitive motive,” Rojek said.

Investigators found a search from Crooks’ account in late September of 2023 of Trump’s campaign schedule and upcoming Pennsylvania appearances, according to Rojek.

But Trump doesn’t appear to have been the only potential target.

Rojek said between April and July of 2024, Crooks searched campaign events for both Trump and President Joe Biden, including events that were scheduled to happen in western Pennsylvania. The bureau uncovered searches on July 5 for, “When is the DNC convention,” and “When is the RNC in 2024,” apparent references to the Democratic and Republican National Conventions ahead of the 2024 presidential election.

In the 30 days before the attack, Crooks conducted more than 60 searches related to either Biden or Trump, Rojek said.

‘Detonating cord,’ ‘blasting cap,’ ‘how to make a bomb’: shooter searches since 2019

Crooks’ search history suggests he may have been considering a violent attack for several years.

Rojek said as early as September 2019, and continuing into the summer of 2024, Crooks conducted multiple searches about explosive devices, including “detonating cord,” “blasting cap,” “how to make a bomb from fertilizer,” and “how do remote detonators work.” Crooks also searched for ammonium nitrate, nitromethane, and other materials consistent with manufacturing explosive devices.

Law enforcement found two explosive devices in Crooks’ car.

FBI director Christopher Wray testified a couple of weeks after the shooting that the devices had receivers to enable remote detonation and law enforcement found a transmitter on the roof with Crooks. However, he also said investigators didn’t believe detonation would have worked because the receivers were switched off.

Rojek said Wednesday that components Crooks used to make those devices were legal to buy and readily available online.

‘No definitive ideology associated with our subject, either left-leaning or right-leaning’

Federal investigators have been working to learn who Crooks was and why he tried to kill Trump ever since the Republican presidential nominee took a bullet to the ear at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13. Crooks also killed rally attendee and father of two Corey Comperatore, while critically wounding two others.

Robert Wells, executive assistant director of the FBI’s national security branch, said on the call that the FBI not only hasn’t identified a motive but also hasn’t uncovered any co-conspirators or associates of Crooks who had advance knowledge of the attack.

“And I want to be clear, we have not seen any indication to suggest Crooks was directed by a foreign entity to conduct the attack,” Wells added.

Rojek said investigators aren’t even clear whether Crooks had partisan political views. “We’ve seen no definitive ideology associated with our subject, either left-leaning or right-leaning. It’s really been a mixture and something that we’re still attempting to analyze and draw conclusions on.”

Antisemitic posts by the shooter?

Rojek also addressed testimony FBI Deputy Director Paul Abbate gave before Congress on July 30 when he said investigators had found “the first real indication” of extremist views and politically violent communications through a social media account they were working to verify belonged to Crooks.

Abbate mentioned more than 700 comments between 2019 and 2020, including antisemitic and anti-immigration messages, in particular.

The FBI’s assessment “is that those statements were associated with accounts associated with the subject, and we continue to work to determine if they were, in fact, attributed to the subject himself,” Rojek said.

‘Where will Trump speak from?’: preparations before attack

On July 4, just nine days before the attack, Crooks searched for details on the Butler campaign event, which took place within easy driving distance of his home. Two days later, Crooks showed an interest in a previous political assassination, searching for how far Lee Harvey Oswald was from John F. Kennedy when Oswald shot him.

Rojek described that search, which has been previously reported, on Wednesday.

He also clarified that Crooks looked into specific details about the set-up for the campaign rally. Crooks entered online searches on July 6 for, “Where will Trump speak from at Butler Farm Show,” “Butler Farm Show podium,” and “Butler Farm Show photos.” Rojek said those were exact quotes, but didn’t clarify what the spelling, punctuation, or capitalization looked like.

Crooks also searched for “ballistic calculator” on July 9 and looked up the weather in Butler on July 10, Rojek said.

Family ‘extremely cooperative,’ have received Crooks’ body

Rojek clarified that the FBI remains in contact with Crooks’ family members, who he said have been “extremely cooperative.”

Law enforcement released Crooks’ body to them after Pennsylvania’s Allegheny County Office of the Medical Examiner conducted an autopsy and the FBI and Pennsylvania State Police both agreed with the Butler County Coroner’s Office’s decision to release the remains.

“I want to stress that it is not standard procedure or practice for the FBI or any law enforcement agency to request that the coroner or medical examiner maintain indefinite custody of a deceased subject’s body once the investigative purposes of our agency and our partner agencies are completed,” he said.

Autopsy and toxicology reports indicated Crooks wasn’t on drugs or alcohol when he died, and that he was killed by a single gunshot wound to the head, Rojek said. Crooks was pronounced dead at 6:25 p.m. EDT on July 13.

Encrypted email accounts accessed, Trump briefed on investigation

Rojek said Crooks had overseas encrypted email accounts, but the level of encryption wasn’t more sophisticated than any standard, widely used email service that’s internet-based. He said the FBI has successfully accessed those accounts and analyzed their contents, although it is continuing to “identify and exploit” Crooks’ accounts more broadly.

At a July congressional hearing, FBI and Secret Service officials said law enforcement identified Crooks as suspicious well before the attack and shared a photograph of him nearly an hour before he opened fire at about 6:11 p.m. EDT. A local officer radioed seeing Crooks on the roof from which he opened fire with “a long gun” about 30 seconds in advance.

Investigators previously revealed Crooks used an ‘AR-style 556’ rifle in the attack. That weapon was and is operational, Rojek said Wednesday. He confirmed the FBI successfully test-fired it and also matched the casings found on the roof to the rifle.

During a standard victim interview with Trump, the FBI and the Pennsylvania State Police provided the Republican presidential nominee “with an in-depth briefing on the investigation” and answered his questions, Rojek said.

Since the assassination attempt, Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle resigned under intense pressure over the failure to protect Trump at the campaign event. Members of Congress and the wider public have continued to press the service about how Crooks was able to obtain a line of fire on Trump.

Investigators have conducted nearly 1,000 interviews in total, in addition to issuing dozens of subpoenas and analyzing hundreds of hours of video footage, according to Rojek.

CIA Director Burns Exposes Putin’s Grand Plan: A Threat to the Western World

Let’s
talk about Vladimir Putin, the man who’s made it his life’s mission to threaten
NATO and every democratic Western country out there. No one has a better grasp
on what makes Putin tick than CIA Director William J. Burns. This guy isn’t
just any intelligence chief—he’s someone who’s been up close and personal with
Putin for years, long before the world saw the full extent of Russia’s
aggression.

     Burns knows Putin like few others. He
served as U.S. Ambassador to Russia from 2005 to 2008, then climbed the ranks
as Undersecretary of State and Deputy Secretary of State, before taking the
helm at the CIA. This isn’t just a man reading reports from afar—Burns has sat
across the table from Putin, most recently in November 2021, right before
Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine. He was the last American official to speak
to Putin before the tanks rolled in.

     Burns paints a chilling picture of Putin:
a combustible mix of grievances, ambition, and deep-seated insecurity. This
isn’t just some ordinary leader we’re dealing with—Putin is a former KGB
officer, trained to see the worst in human nature. He’s suspicious of everyone,
always on the lookout for vulnerabilities to exploit.

     Forget about appealing to his better
nature—Putin doesn’t believe in that. He’s all about control, intimidation, and
getting even. Burns doesn’t mince words—he calls Putin an “apostle of payback.”

     What’s more, over the years, Burns has
seen Putin evolve into a leader who’s completely isolated himself from dissent.
Back when Burns was ambassador in Moscow, there were still people in Putin’s
inner circle who dared to disagree with him. That’s all gone now.

     Today, Putin surrounds himself with
yes-men—advisors who either echo his hardline views or have learned the hard
way that questioning his judgment is a career-ending move.

     Burns admits that trying to predict
Putin’s tactical decisions is like trying to crack a code. But one thing is
clear: Putin is driven by a sense of destiny. He’s convinced that it’s his
mission to restore Russia’s status as a great power, and he sees Ukraine as the
linchpin in that plan. For Putin, controlling Ukraine isn’t just a strategic
necessity—it’s a matter of personal entitlement. He’s deluded himself into
believing that Ukraine isn’t a real country, and that it’s Russia’s right to
dominate it.

     This isn’t just about Ukraine, though.
Putin’s ambitions stretch far beyond that. He dreams of reinstating the Soviet
Union, pulling all those breakaway satellite nations back under Moscow’s
control. And he’s not just talking—he’s taking action. I describe these
ambitions in my spy thriller novel, where Putin sends former KGB agents, GRU
spies, and Spetsnaz assassins into the Caribbean to undermine America’s
presence there, reflecting the same tactics he used in Ukraine, sending them in
years before his invasion. That’s the backdrop for Mission
of Vengeance, where Corey Pearson, a seasoned CIA spymaster, goes
toe-to-toe with Putin’s operatives as they try to destabilize the region.

     Putin isn’t just a threat to Ukraine—he’s
a threat to the entire Western world. His obsession with power and control is
pushing us all toward the brink. And as William J. Burns knows all too well,
this is a man who won’t stop until he’s achieved his twisted vision of a
restored Russian empire. The question is: how far will we let him go before we
stop him? 

Robert
Morton is a member of the Association of Former Intelligence Officers (AFIO)
and authors the ‘Corey
Pearson- CIA Spymaster’ series. Check out his latest spy thriller, ‘Mission of Vengeance’ 

“There you were, sitting there, writing to your friends in the chat room,” she recalls him saying. He proceeded to dispassionately quote word for word several Telegram messages she had written from her bed. “‘They’re unlikely to bust it down,’” he recited.

“And so,” he said, “we knew that you were there.”

Matsapulina was speechless. She tried to hide her shock, hoping to learn more about how they’d accessed her messages. But the officer didn’t elaborate.

When she was released two days later, Matsapulina learned from her lawyer that on the morning she was arrested, police had searched the houses of some 80 other people with opposition ties and had arrested 20, charging each with terrorism related to the alleged bomb threat. A few days later, Matsapulina gathered her belongings and boarded a flight to Istanbul.

In April, after having made it safely to Armenia, Matsapulina recounted the episode in a Twitter thread. She ruled out the chance that anyone in her close-knit group had been cooperating with security forces (they’d all also left Russia by then), which left two conceivable explanations for how the officers had read her private Telegram messages. One was that they had installed some kind of malware, like the NSO Group’s infamous Pegasus tool, on her phone. Based on what she’d gathered, the expensive software was reserved for high-level targets and was not likely to have been turned on a mid-level figure in an unregistered party with about 1,000 members nationwide.

The other “unpleasant” explanation, she wrote, “is, I think, obvious to everyone.” Russians needed to consider the possibility that Telegram, the supposedly antiauthoritarian app cofounded by the mercurial Saint Petersburg native Pavel Durov, was now complying with the Kremlin’s legal requests. Telegram would later posit a third possible explanation: That in the few hours after Matsapulina’s arrest and before she was questioned, FSB officers had extracted her messages using a phone-hacking tool like Cellebrite.

Matsapulina’s case is hardly an isolated one, though it is especially unsettling. Over the past year, numerous dissidents across Russia have found their Telegram accounts seemingly monitored or compromised. Hundreds have had their Telegram activity wielded against them in criminal cases. Perhaps most disturbingly, some activists have found their “secret chats”—Telegram’s purportedly ironclad, end-to-end encrypted feature—behaving strangely, in ways that suggest an unwelcome third party might be eavesdropping. These cases have set off a swirl of conspiracy theories, paranoia, and speculation among dissidents, whose trust in Telegram has plummeted. In many cases, it’s impossible to tell what’s really happening to people’s accounts—whether spyware or Kremlin informants have been used to break in, through no particular fault of the company; whether Telegram really is cooperating with Moscow; or whether it’s such an inherently unsafe platform that the latter is merely what appears to be going on.

In the decade since its founding in Russia, Telegram has grown to become one of the biggest social networks in the world, with 700 million users—yet only about 60 core employees. “For us, Telegram is an idea,” Durov has said. “It is the idea that everyone on this planet has a right to be free.”

The platform, now based in Dubai, has minimal content moderation aside from a stated commitment to taking down illegal pornography, IP rights violations, scams, and calls for violence. Often described in the press as an “encrypted” or “secure” messaging app, Telegram has fashioned itself as a refuge for safe, anonymous communication, but in fact it requires users to go out of their way to set a chat as “secret”; unlike on WhatsApp or Signal, end-to-end encryption is not the default. Still, Durov has repeatedly managed to benefit from the stumbles of other tech giants, particularly when user privacy is at stake. In January 2021, a PR crisis surrounding WhatsApp’s data-sharing with Facebook helped drive millions of people to Telegram, an exodus Durov called possibly the “largest digital migration in human history.”

In the US, Telegram has been relatively slow to catch on, though in the wake of Donald Trump’s ban from Facebook and Twitter in January 2021, it has increasingly become a hotbed for far-right groups like the Proud Boys and followers of QAnon. But in many parts of the world, Telegram is mainstream. In Brazil, where the app has been downloaded on more than half of the country’s smartphones, much of the January 2023 insurrection was planned on the platform. Telegram has also been crucial for pro-­democracy activists in Hong Kong and in countries under Russia’s thumb, like Belarus and Ukraine. In the latter, it has become the preferred app for disseminating government advice for avoiding air strikes—as well as for Russian disinformation.

But it is in Russia itself that Telegram has become nearly indispensable over the past year, thanks to the Putin regime’s wartime clampdown against Western tech. Since the conflict began, Russian authorities have branded Telegram’s main rival, Meta, an “extremist” organization, in part for permitting certain users in Ukraine to post calls for violence against the Russian military. Russia then blocked Meta’s Facebook (which had some 70 million users in the country) and Instagram (80 million). Telegram’s Russian user base has soared from 30 million in 2020 to nearly 50 million today, surpassing WhatsApp as Russia’s most used messaging platform. (The Kremlin controls all of the most popular internet companies based in Russia, including ­VKontakte, a ­Facebook-like social network cofounded by Durov in 2006 that has nearly 70 million users.)

WASHINGTON — The Biden administration is increasingly concerned that the intensifying military alliance between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un could vastly expand Pyongyang’s nuclear capabilities and increase tensions in the Asia-Pacific region, six senior U.S. officials told NBC News.

U.S. officials are also bracing for North Korea to potentially take its most provocative military actions in a decade close to the U.S. presidential election, possibly at Putin’s urging, the officials said. 

The timing, they said, could be designed to create turmoil in yet another part of the world as Americans decide whether to send President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump back to the White House.

“We have no doubt that North Korea will be provocative this year. It’s just a matter of how escalatory it is,” a U.S. intelligence official said. 

U.S. intelligence officials accused Russia of interfering in the 2016 election to help elect Trump. The Biden administration had tense relations with Russia, which collapsed after it invaded Ukraine in 2022.

After the publication of this story, Steven Cheung, a Trump campaign spokesman, said “the only ‘October surprise’ will be the look of shock” among reporters when Trump wins re-election.

With Putin expected to visit North Korea to meet with Kim in the coming weeks, U.S. officials expect them to solidify a new deal to expand transfers of military technology to Pyongyang. 

“2024 is not going to be a good year,” said Victor Cha, senior vice president for Asia and Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “It’s going to be a bit of a roller coaster.”

A burgeoning alliance

U.S. intelligence officials believe Putin is providing North Korea with nuclear submarine and ballistic missile technology in exchange for Pyongyang’s sending Russia large amount of munitions for its war in Ukraine, the senior U.S. officials said. North Korea provides Russia with more munitions than Europe provides to Ukraine, including millions of artillery shells.

Officials are also concerned that Russia might help North Korea complete the final steps needed to field its first submarine able to launch a nuclear-armed missile. 

In September, North Korea unveiled a submarine, based on an old Soviet model, but U.S. officials said Pyongyang was most likely exaggerating its capabilities. They said the submarine still needed additional technology before it could deploy or launch a nuclear-armed missile. 

Despite repeatedly offering to begin talks without any conditions, the U.S. has had no significant dialogue with the Kim regime for three years, the officials said. The administration reached out to North Korea again this year, but it did not respond.

U.S. officials said they do not have an entirely clear understanding of the types of technology Russia is supplying North Korea. Unlike weapons transfers that can be physically tracked, sharing of military technology is not as easily detected. 

“The higher-end Russia technical assistance comes in forms that are very difficult indeed to monitor,” a senior administration official said.

U.S. officials cautioned that the North Korean ammunition is most likely old and unreliable. But North Korea sent the artillery at a time when Ukraine was struggling with stockpiles and had to ration ammunition, so the influx gave Russia an advantage on the battlefield.

The officials said that in exchange for the ammunition it is providing Moscow, North Korea wants Russia to provide it with ballistic missile parts, aircraft, missiles, armored vehicles and other advanced technologies.

In recent months North Korea has continued to advance its missile program, including testing a solid-fuel engine for a hypersonic missile and other incremental advances that together have made its missile program more reliable, U.S. officials warn. 

Pyongyang has long sought a long-range ballistic missile able to fly thousands of miles and then re-enter the atmosphere with the payload intact. U.S. officials warn that Russia could now be helping it achieve the final steps. A nuclear-capable missile with survivable re-entry vehicles would present a significant challenge for U.S. missile defense systems. 

U.S. officials also said there has been increased activity at one of the North Korean nuclear test facilities, which could indicate preparations for another test. Satellite images published in April by Beyond Parallel, a project examining the Korean Peninsula at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, showed activity at Tunnel No. 3 at the Punggye-ri nuclear facility.

The group said that “both the United States and South Korea have assessed North Korea as having completed all the required preparations for conducting a seventh nuclear test from the tunnel.”

The Biden administration has been expecting a nuclear test from North Korea for some time. The U.S. recently prepared contingency plans for how to respond if Kim takes aggressive actions in the demilitarized zone with South Korea or shells South Korea’s border islands, which he has not done since 2010. 

“We are going to be ready and prepared,” the senior administration official said, noting the administration’s coordination with South Korea and Japan.

U.S. officials said they are also concerned that Moscow could help North Korea with its domestic manufacturing of weapons and even create a defense industrial base partnership. 

An ‘October surprise’?

Whether or not Putin encourages Kim to take provocative actions designed to create a so-called October surprise in the U.S. presidential election, a second senior administration official said Russia might hesitate to such a step. The official said China, which has also grown closer to Russia and helped Putin wage his war in Ukraine, typically does not want instability in the region.

Still, U.S. officials concede there is much about the Russia-North Korea alliance — and where it could go from here — that they do not know. Increased tensions in the Asia-Pacific region would come after two wars have broken out since Biden took office: one in Ukraine and the other between Israel and Hamas. 

Trump has argued that both wars are a result of Biden’s leadership and would not have happened were he in office. Biden White House officials vehemently dispute that claim.

The increasingly close relationship between Putin and Kim represents a major shift from when Russia worked with the U.S. in the past to try to rein in North Korea. Now, Moscow is using its veto power on the U.N. Security Council to give Pyongyang cover to evade sanctions enforcement measures intended to constrain its nuclear program. 

“This is an enormous shift,” the second senior administration official said.

Published August 30, 2024 at 1:23 PM EDT

The 2024 presidential election cycle has seen its share of headlines in recent months:

• A party feverishly trying to convince an incumbent president not to run for re-election.
• A candidate getting shot at during an apparent assassination attempt.
• The sitting president bowing out of the race and immediately endorsing his vice president to replace him.
• A candidate with a real chance of becoming America’s first African-American, Asian-American, female President. 

“This has been unprecedented,” said Eastern Connecticut State University Presidential historian Thomas Balcerski.

Balcerski said adding to the list of unprecedented events is the public’s reaction to former President Donald Trump’s running mate, J.D. Vance.

“We’ve seen a party who brought about a vice presidential nominee that has proven historically unpopular and has actually fallen in its approval ratings more than any other candidate,” he said.

On top of that Balcerski said Vice President Kamala Harris’s nomination is notable, because we now have “a Democratic National Committee with a candidate who’s received no votes in the primary.”

So, what can history teach us about how this most unique Presidential election season will play out? According to Balcerski, history says no matter what the polls say today, a surprise is probably coming.

“We’ve been talking as if the election is somehow decided in June or July and August. It’s not,” Balcerski said. “It’s decided in those final months of October and November, and famously or infamously, we always seem to have something in those last couple of weeks, which we now call the ‘October surprise,’ that could change the entire course of the race.”

The history of the ‘October Surprise’

An “October Surprise” is now defined as ”an unexpected political event or revelation in the month before a presidential election, especially one that seems intended to influence the outcome,” according to The Oxford English Dictionary

But Balcerski says that is only the most recent definition.

“It didn’t actually have a political meaning,” Balcerski said. “It’s an interesting term that actually comes out of advertising, when department stores would give a sale. We now might call it more like Black Friday.”

A little more than four decades ago, Balcerski said the term’s evolution into a political phenomena began in earnest.

“It really took on historical or political meaning in 1980, when President Reagan’s campaign manager was fired right in the eve of the election, and then he ended up beating President Carter anyway,” Balcerski said. “That was considered the first ‘October Surprise.’”

October Surprises have been numerous since Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential run.

“In 2016, it would seem the ‘October Surprise’ may have peaked with, in that case, news that came out against candidate Donald Trump about some of his conduct and behavior in 2005 this is the famous entertainment Hollywood Video,” Balcerski said.

Then came a second surprise.

“We also saw on that same week, but what an incredible week it was, that the FBI had reopened an investigation into Hillary Clinton’s staff and use of a private email server,” he said.

In 2020, a major October Surprise was Trump getting sick with COVID-19, as well as Hunter Biden’s laptop. The New York Post published a story in mid-October 2020 detailing documents found on the device.

“And so here we are now, in 2024 with ‘anything can happen,’” Balcerski said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if it does.”

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